Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) Fair Value 2026

DK · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) trades at $72.25, versus a $35.33 median fair value across its 8 active models — 51.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DK
Price
$72.25
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $35.33, 51.1% below the current price of $72.25. Estimates range from $2.92 to $84.14. DK scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. DK’s -51.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector median is -25.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Delek US Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DK?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($72.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $31.07 -57.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $42.86 -40.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.92 -96.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $7.87 -89.1%
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What Is DK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $2.92 to $84.14

CirclFi's 8 active models place Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) between $2.92 and $84.14 per share, a spread of 230% of the median. The median of that range — $35.33 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DK, against a current price of $72.25.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · PWERM
$2.92median $35.33$84.14
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$2.92
Most bullish modelPWERM$84.14
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Delek US Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $35.33, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $72.25. With 7 out of 8 models flagging downside (-51.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $84.14 (+16.5%), versus RCMH-DCF at $2.92 (-96.0%). This +112.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About DK?

8 of 13 models are currently active for DK. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DK is $35.33 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DK Rank in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing?

Among 19 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, DK ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

As a energy producer, Delek US Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where capital efficiency ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating DK should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is DK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DK a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Delek US Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Delek US Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +112.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DK's 8 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Delek US Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks with 13-model coverage

SUNSunoco LPQOC 7.7WKCWorld Kinect CorporationQOC 7.4DINOHF Sinclair CorporationQOC 8.1CVICVR Energy, Inc.QOC 7.3SGUStar Group, L.P.QOC 8.2CAPLCrossAmerica Partners LPQOC 7.1DKLDelek Logistics Partners, LPQOC 6.8APCARKO Petroleum Corp.QOC 4.5VLOValero Energy CorporationQOC 8.4UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.QOC 8.8PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: SUN · WKC · DINO · CVI · SGU · CAPL · DKL · APC · VLO · UGP · PARR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DK?

7 companies across all industries closest to DK’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

RMRegional Management Corp.QOC 7.6WRBYWarby Parker Inc.QOC 7.6FERFerrovial N.V.QOC 7.6SUISun Communities, Inc.QOC 7.6CRICarter's, Inc.QOC 7.6NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RM · WRBY · FER · SUI · CRI · NP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Delek US Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Delek US Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK)'s intrinsic value at $35.33 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.92 to $84.14. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $72.25, 1 of 8 active models suggest DK may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $35.33, 51.1% below the current price of $72.25 — a consensus view that DK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Delek US Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for DK?

Delek US Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DK?

CirclFi analyzes DK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DK?

Of the 8 models currently active on DK, PWERM is the most bullish at $84.14 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $2.92. CirclFi's published fair value for DK is the median of that range, $35.33, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 230% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DK a value trap in 2026?

Delek US Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) has a median fair value of $35.33 — 51.1% below the current price of $72.25 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DK valuation
  • Financial statements: Delek US Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001694426) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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