Phillips 66 (PSX) Fair Value 2026

PSX · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Phillips 66 (PSX) trades at $239.81, versus a $152.75 median fair value across its 11 active models — 36.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $143.08.

Key Facts

Ticker
PSX
Price
$239.81
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +10.5% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Phillips 66 (PSX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Phillips 66 (PSX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $152.75, 36.3% below the current price of $239.81. Estimates range from $20.06 to $265.09. PSX scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PSX’s -36.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector median is -22.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Phillips 66 Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PSX?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($239.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $143.08 -40.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $20.06 -91.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $152.75 -36.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $265.09 +10.5%
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What Is PSX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $20.06 to $265.09

CirclFi's 11 active models place Phillips 66 (PSX) between $20.06 and $265.09 per share, a spread of 160% of the median. The median of that range — $152.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PSX, against a current price of $239.81.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$20.06median $152.75$265.09
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$20.06
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$265.09
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PSX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PSX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Phillips 66 (PSX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Phillips 66's intrinsic value is estimated at $152.75, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $239.81. With 9 out of 11 models flagging downside (-36.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $265.09 (+10.5%), versus EPV at $20.06 (-91.6%). This +102.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About PSX?

11 of 13 models are currently active for PSX. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PSX is $152.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $143.08 on its own, implying -40.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PSX Rank in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing?

Among 18 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, PSX ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places PSX in the top tier.

As a energy producer, Phillips 66 operates in a sector where reserve life index is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating PSX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is PSX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PSX a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Phillips 66. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Phillips 66 is rated at 8.3/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +102.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PSX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PSX's 11 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Phillips 66 Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks with 13-model coverage

VLOValero Energy CorporationQOC 8.4SGUStar Group, L.P.QOC 8.2MPCMarathon Petroleum CorporationQOC 8.5DINOHF Sinclair CorporationQOC 8.1PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6SUNSunoco LPQOC 7.7DKDelek US Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6CSANCosan S.A.QOC 6.6DLXYDelixy Holdings LimitedQOC 2.7UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.QOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: VLO · SGU · MPC · DINO · PARR · SUN · DK · CSAN · DLXY · UGP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PSX?

7 companies across all industries closest to PSX’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

NVSTEnvista Holdings CorporationQOC 8.3MKTXMarketAxess Holdings Inc.QOC 8.3HONHoneywell International Inc.QOC 8.3IIINInsteel Industries Inc.QOC 8.3LPGDorian LPG Ltd.QOC 8.3CHAChagee Holdings LimitedQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NVST · MKTX · HON · IIIN · LPG · CHA · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Phillips 66’s Valuation?

What is Phillips 66's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Phillips 66 (PSX)'s intrinsic value at $152.75 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $20.06 to $265.09. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $143.08 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PSX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $239.81, 2 of 11 active models suggest PSX may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $152.75, 36.3% below the current price of $239.81 — a consensus view that PSX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Phillips 66's business model in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for PSX?

Phillips 66's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PSX?

CirclFi analyzes PSX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PSX?

Of the 11 models currently active on PSX, First Chicago is the most bullish at $265.09 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $20.06. CirclFi's published fair value for PSX is the median of that range, $152.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 160% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PSX a value trap in 2026?

Phillips 66's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Phillips 66 (PSX) has a median fair value of $152.75 — 36.3% below the current price of $239.81 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PSX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PSX valuation
  • Financial statements: Phillips 66 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001534701) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PSX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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