What Is Phillips 66 (PSX) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Phillips 66 at its current price of $198.29. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $142.27 (-28.2% average return), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $259.28 (+30.8%), versus Dynamic NAV at $31.63 (-84.1%). This +114.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About PSX?
13 of 13 models are currently active for PSX. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates PSX's intrinsic value at $207.30, implying +4.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does PSX Rank in Petroleum Refining?
Among 17 Petroleum Refining stocks, PSX ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.
As a energy producer, Phillips 66 operates in a sector where reserve life index is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating PSX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.
Is PSX a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PSX a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Phillips 66. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Phillips 66 is rated at 7.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +114.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every PSX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across PSX's 13 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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