BP p.l.c. (BP) Fair Value 2026

BP · Oil & Gas Integrated ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, BP p.l.c. (BP) trades at $45.01, versus a $54.35 median fair value across its 11 active models — 20.7% above the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $107.27.

Key Facts

Ticker
BP
Price
$45.01
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +193.2% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is BP p.l.c. (BP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, BP p.l.c. (BP) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $54.35, 20.7% above the current price of $45.01. Estimates range from $24.21 to $158.73. BP scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. BP’s +20.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Integrated sector median is -20.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BP p.l.c. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BP?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($45.01)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $107.27 +138.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $29.76 -33.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $62.38 +38.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $131.95 +193.2%
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What Is BP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $24.21 to $158.73

CirclFi's 11 active models place BP p.l.c. (BP) between $24.21 and $158.73 per share, a spread of 248% of the median. The median of that range — $54.35 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BP, against a current price of $45.01.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · RCMH-DCF
$24.21median $54.35$158.73
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$24.21
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$158.73
Model agreement7 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is BP p.l.c. (BP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BP p.l.c.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $54.35, suggesting a +20.7% median upside from the current price of $45.01. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $158.73 (+252.7%), versus Markov DDM at $24.21 (-46.2%). This +298.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BP?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BP. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BP is $54.35 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $107.27 on its own, implying +138.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BP Rank in Oil & Gas Integrated?

Among 20 Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, BP ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

The Oil & Gas Integrated sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy producer businesses. For BP p.l.c., metrics like reserve life index provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BP a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for BP p.l.c.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BP p.l.c. scores 7.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +298.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BP's 11 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BP p.l.c. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Integrated Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Integrated stocks with 13-model coverage

SHELShell plcQOC 8.1SUSuncor Energy Inc.QOC 7.4XOMExxonMobil Holdings CorporationQOC 8.3EEni S.p.A.QOC 7.3NFGNational Fuel Gas CompanyQOC 8.4DECDiversified Energy CompanyQOC 7.2YPFYPF Sociedad AnónimaQOC 6.1TTETotalEnergies SEQOC 2.9CVXChevron CorporationQOC 8.6ECEcopetrol S.A.QOC 9.0TGSTransportadora de Gas del Sur S.A.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: SHEL · SU · XOM · E · NFG · DEC · YPF · TTE · CVX · EC · TGS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BP?

7 companies across all industries closest to BP’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

LTRXLantronix, Inc.QOC 7.4ADArray Digital Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 7.4EPCEdgewell Personal Care CompanyQOC 7.4SWIMLatham Group, Inc.QOC 7.4KIMKimco Realty CorporationQOC 7.4TLIHTen-League International Holdings LimitedQOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LTRX · AD · EPC · SWIM · KIM · TLIH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About BP p.l.c.’s Valuation?

What is BP p.l.c.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts BP p.l.c. (BP)'s intrinsic value at $54.35 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $24.21 to $158.73. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $107.27 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $45.01, 7 of 11 active models suggest BP may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $54.35, 20.7% above the current price of $45.01 — a consensus view that BP is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BP p.l.c.'s business model in Oil & Gas Integrated.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for BP?

BP p.l.c.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BP?

CirclFi analyzes BP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BP?

Of the 11 models currently active on BP, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $158.73 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $24.21. CirclFi's published fair value for BP is the median of that range, $54.35, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 248% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BP a value trap in 2026?

BP p.l.c.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, BP p.l.c. (BP) has a median fair value of $54.35 — 20.7% above the current price of $45.01 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BP valuation
  • Financial statements: BP p.l.c. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000313807) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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