ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) Fair Value 2026

XOM · Oil & Gas Integrated ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) trades at $156.44, versus a $82.86 median fair value across its 12 active models — 47.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $41.44.

Key Facts

Ticker
XOM
Price
$156.44
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $82.86, 47.0% below the current price of $156.44. Estimates range from $21.83 to $172.34. XOM scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. XOM’s -47.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Integrated sector median is -18.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give XOM?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($156.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $41.44 -73.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $77.36 -50.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $93.95 -39.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $150.60 -3.7%
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What Is XOM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $21.83 to $172.34

CirclFi's 12 active models place ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) between $21.83 and $172.34 per share, a spread of 182% of the median. The median of that range — $82.86 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for XOM, against a current price of $156.44.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Markov DDM
$21.83median $82.86$172.34
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$21.83
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$172.34
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for XOM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on XOM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $82.86. Trading at its current price of $156.44, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -47.0%. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +10.2% (fair value: $172.34), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -86.0% ($21.83). The spread between these extremes — +96.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About XOM?

12 of 13 models are currently active for XOM. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for XOM is $82.86 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $41.44 on its own, implying -73.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XOM Rank in Oil & Gas Integrated?

Among 19 Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, XOM ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places XOM in the top tier.

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's positioning within the Oil & Gas Integrated segment means that reserve life index plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including production growth trajectory — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is XOM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XOM a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +96.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XOM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XOM's 12 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Integrated Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Oil & Gas Integrated stocks with 13-model coverage

NFGNational Fuel Gas CompanyQOC 8.4SHELShell plcQOC 8.1CVECenovus Energy Inc.QOC 8.5BPBP p.l.c.QOC 7.4TGSTransportadora de Gas del Sur S.A.QOC 8.6SUSuncor Energy Inc.QOC 7.3EEni S.p.A.QOC 7.3ECTMECA Marcellus Trust IQOC 5.2PBRPetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasQOC 2.4ECEcopetrol S.A.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: NFG · SHEL · CVE · BP · TGS · SU · E · ECTM · PBR · EC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to XOM?

7 companies across all industries closest to XOM’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

RLXRLX Technology Inc.QOC 8.3OSWOneSpaWorld Holdings LimitedQOC 8.3JCIJohnson Controls International plcQOC 8.3TIMBTIM S.A.QOC 8.3BILIBilibili Inc.QOC 8.3MCDMcDonald's CorporationQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RLX · OSW · JCI · TIMB · BILI · MCD · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation’s Valuation?

What is ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM)'s intrinsic value at $82.86 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $21.83 to $172.34. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $41.44 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XOM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $156.44, 2 of 12 active models suggest XOM may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $82.86, 47.0% below the current price of $156.44 — a consensus view that XOM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's business model in Oil & Gas Integrated.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for XOM?

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XOM?

CirclFi analyzes XOM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on XOM?

Of the 12 models currently active on XOM, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $172.34 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $21.83. CirclFi's published fair value for XOM is the median of that range, $82.86, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 182% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is XOM a value trap in 2026?

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) has a median fair value of $82.86 — 47.0% below the current price of $156.44 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/XOM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this XOM valuation
  • Financial statements: ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002115436) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for XOM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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