What Is ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $111.12. Trading at $144.56, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -23.1%), as 8 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +39.6% (fair value: $201.87), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -80.5% ($28.24). The spread between these extremes — +120.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About XOM?
13 of 13 models are currently active for XOM. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates XOM's intrinsic value at $199.23, implying +37.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does XOM Rank in Petroleum Refining?
Among 17 Petroleum Refining stocks, XOM ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 indicates above-average quality.
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's positioning within the Petroleum Refining segment means that reserve life index plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including production growth trajectory — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is XOM a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XOM a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation scores 8.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +120.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every XOM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across XOM's 13 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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