Chevron Corporation (CVX) Fair Value 2026

CVX · Petroleum Refining ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Chevron Corporation (CVX) trades at $199.77, versus a $92.28 median fair value across its 9 active models — 53.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $92.28.

Key Facts

Ticker
CVX
Price
$199.77
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +47.1% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Chevron Corporation (CVX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Chevron Corporation (CVX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $92.28, 53.8% below the current price of $199.77. Estimates range from $40.39 to $293.91. CVX scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CVX’s -53.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Chevron Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CVX?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($199.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $92.28 -53.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $40.39 -79.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $94.27 -52.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $293.91 +47.1%
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What Is CVX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $40.39 to $293.91

CirclFi's 9 active models place Chevron Corporation (CVX) between $40.39 and $293.91 per share, a spread of 275% of the median. The median of that range — $92.28 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CVX, against a current price of $199.77.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$40.39median $92.28$293.91
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$40.39
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$293.91
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CVX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CVX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Chevron Corporation (CVX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Chevron Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $92.28, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $199.77. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-53.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +47.1% (fair value: $293.91), while EPV is the most conservative at -79.8% ($40.39). The spread between these extremes — +126.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CVX?

9 of 13 models are currently active for CVX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CVX is $92.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $92.28 on its own, implying -53.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CVX Rank in Petroleum Refining?

Among 2 Petroleum Refining stocks, CVX ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places CVX in the top tier.

As a oil and gas company, Chevron Corporation operates in a sector where finding and development costs (F&D) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating CVX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is CVX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CVX a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Chevron Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Chevron Corporation is rated at 8.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +126.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CVX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CVX's 9 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Chevron Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Petroleum Refining Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Petroleum Refining stocks with 13-model coverage

CVICVR Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2

Read investment analysis: CVI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CVX?

7 companies across all industries closest to CVX’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

PAYOPayoneer Global Inc.QOC 8.5BMYBristol-Myers Squibb CompanyQOC 8.5OPHCOptimumBank Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5BBWBuild-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.QOC 8.5GVAGranite Construction IncorporatedQOC 8.5CORTCorcept Therapeutics IncorporatedQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PAYO · BMY · OPHC · BBW · GVA · CORT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Chevron Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Chevron Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Chevron Corporation (CVX)'s intrinsic value at $92.28 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $40.39 to $293.91. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $92.28 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CVX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $199.77, 1 of 9 active models suggest CVX may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $92.28, 53.8% below the current price of $199.77 — a consensus view that CVX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Chevron Corporation's business model in Petroleum Refining.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for CVX?

Chevron Corporation's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CVX?

CirclFi analyzes CVX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CVX?

Of the 9 models currently active on CVX, First Chicago is the most bullish at $293.91 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $40.39. CirclFi's published fair value for CVX is the median of that range, $92.28, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 275% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CVX a value trap in 2026?

Chevron Corporation's Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Chevron Corporation (CVX) has a median fair value of $92.28 — 53.8% below the current price of $199.77 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CVX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CVX valuation
  • Financial statements: Chevron Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000093410) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CVX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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