What Is Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Valero Energy Corporation at its current price of $295.80. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $221.89 (-25.0% average return), with 9 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +18.8% (fair value: $351.37), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -71.6% ($84.14). The spread between these extremes — +90.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About VLO?
13 of 13 models are currently active for VLO. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates VLO's intrinsic value at $349.55, implying +18.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does VLO Rank in Petroleum Refining?
Among 17 Petroleum Refining stocks, VLO ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places VLO in the top tier.
As a oil and gas company, Valero Energy Corporation operates in a sector where reserve replacement ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating VLO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.
Is VLO a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VLO a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Valero Energy Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Valero Energy Corporation is rated at 8.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +90.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every VLO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across VLO's 13 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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