Sunoco LP (SUN) Fair Value 2026

SUN · Petroleum Refining ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Sunoco LP (SUN) trades at $70.81, approximately 71% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $41.37. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SUN
Price
$70.81
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +6.7% upside with 11% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($70.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$41.37 -41.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$75.57 +6.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$38.62 -45.5%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
$5.33 -92.5%

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What Is Sunoco LP (SUN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sunoco LP's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $67.07, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $70.81. While the average implied return is -5.3%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +222.3% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $162.21 (+129.1%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $4.80 (-93.2%). This +222.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Sunoco LP's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SUN?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SUN. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SUN's intrinsic value at $41.37, implying -41.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SUN Rank in Petroleum Refining?

Among 17 Petroleum Refining stocks, SUN ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places SUN in the top tier.

The Petroleum Refining sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For Sunoco LP, metrics like debt-to-EBITDAX provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SUN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SUN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Sunoco LP. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Sunoco LP earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +222.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SUN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SUN's 11 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sunoco LP Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Petroleum Refining Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Petroleum Refining stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CVX · VLO · COP · XOM · PSX

Frequently Asked Questions About Sunoco LP

What is Sunoco LP's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Sunoco LP (SUN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $41.37. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SUN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $70.81, 6 of 11 active models suggest SUN may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sunoco LP's business model in Petroleum Refining.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for SUN?

Sunoco LP's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SUN?

CirclFi analyzes SUN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SUN a value trap in 2026?

Sunoco LP's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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