What Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Marathon Petroleum Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $306.24. Trading at $296.87, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of +3.2%), as 7 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $881.98 (+197.1%), versus EROIC at $94.61 (-68.1%). This +265.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About MPC?
12 of 13 models are currently active for MPC. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MPC's intrinsic value at $881.98, implying +197.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does MPC Rank in Petroleum Refining?
Among 17 Petroleum Refining stocks, MPC ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.
The Petroleum Refining sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy producer businesses. For Marathon Petroleum Corporation, metrics like breakeven oil price provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is MPC a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MPC a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Marathon Petroleum Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Marathon Petroleum Corporation earns a quality score of 7.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +265.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every MPC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across MPC's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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