What Is ConocoPhillips (COP) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ConocoPhillips's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $208.78. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $112.86 (implied upside of +85.0%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 13 bullish models. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +373.6% (fair value: $534.53), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -76.5% ($26.57). The spread between these extremes — +450.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About COP?
13 of 13 models are currently active for COP. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates COP's intrinsic value at $428.00, implying +279.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does COP Rank in Petroleum Refining?
Among 17 Petroleum Refining stocks, COP ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places COP in the top tier.
The Petroleum Refining sector introduces analytical considerations specific to oil and gas company businesses. For ConocoPhillips, metrics like reserve replacement ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is COP a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns COP a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for ConocoPhillips. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, ConocoPhillips earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +450.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every COP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across COP's 13 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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