Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) Fair Value 2026

PBR · Oil & Gas Integrated ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) trades at $18.53, versus a $52.88 median fair value across its 2 active models — 185.4% above the current price. QOC: 2.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PBR
Price
$18.53
Quality Score
2.4/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +308.8% upside with 19% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.4/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $52.88, 185.4% above the current price of $18.53. Estimates range from $30.00 to $75.75. PBR scores 2.4/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. PBR’s +185.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Integrated sector median is -24.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PBR?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($18.53)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $75.75 +308.8%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $30.00 +61.9%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras. Trading at $18.53 against an estimated intrinsic value of $52.88, 2 of 2 active models flag meaningful upside of +185.4% at the median. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $75.75 (+308.8%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $30.00 (+61.9%). This +246.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PBR?

2 of 13 models are currently active for PBR. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for PBR is $52.88 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PBR Rank in Oil & Gas Integrated?

Among 20 Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, PBR ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.4 signals below-average fundamentals.

The Oil & Gas Integrated sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras, metrics like breakeven oil price provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is PBR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PBR a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras earns a quality score of 2.4/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +246.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PBR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PBR's 2 active models, average confidence is 17%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Integrated Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas Integrated stocks with 13-model coverage

EQNREquinor ASAQOC 2.7ECEcopetrol S.A.QOC 9.0TTETotalEnergies SEQOC 2.9TGSTransportadora de Gas del Sur S.A.QOC 8.6IMOImperial Oil LimitedQOC 4.1CVXChevron CorporationQOC 8.6NFGNational Fuel Gas CompanyQOC 8.4EEni S.p.A.QOC 7.3ECTMECA Marcellus Trust IQOC 5.2

Read investment analysis: EQNR · EC · TTE · TGS · IMO · CVX · NFG · E · ECTM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PBR?

7 companies across all industries closest to PBR’s Quality of Company score of 2.4/10.

EPRXEupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 2.4CCTGCCSC Technology International Holdings LimitedQOC 2.4LGHLLion Group Holding Ltd.QOC 2.4XCHXCHG LimitedQOC 2.4MATHMetalpha Technology Holding LimitedQOC 2.4DGNXDiginex LimitedQOC 2.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EPRX · CCTG · LGHL · XCH · MATH · DGNX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras’s Valuation?

What is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR)'s intrinsic value at $52.88 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $30.00 to $75.75. The Quality of Company score is 2.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PBR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $18.53, 2 of 2 active models suggest PBR may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $52.88, 185.4% above the current price of $18.53 — a consensus view that PBR is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's business model in Oil & Gas Integrated.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.4 mean for PBR?

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's QOC of 2.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PBR?

CirclFi analyzes PBR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PBR a value trap in 2026?

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) has a median fair value of $52.88 — 185.4% above the current price of $18.53 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PBR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PBR valuation

Market data for PBR as of ; valuations recomputed .