Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob (PBR) Fair Value 2026

PBR · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob (PBR) trades at $17.86, approximately 67% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $10.70. QOC: 2.2/10. 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PBR
Price
$17.86
Quality Score
2.2/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +492.4% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.2/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob (PBR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob (PBR) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $45.49, 154.6% above the current price of $17.86. Estimates range from $6.63 to $105.83. PBR scores 2.2/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$10.70 -40.1%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$6.67 -62.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$45.49 +154.6%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$105.83 +492.4%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including EROIC Spread, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob (PBR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $48.30, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $17.87. While the average implied return is +170.4%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +555.3% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $105.83 (+492.4%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $6.63 (-62.9%). This +555.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PBR?

11 of 13 models are currently active for PBR. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates PBR's intrinsic value at $10.70, implying -40.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PBR Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, PBR ranks #69 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.2 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

The Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob, metrics like breakeven oil price provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is PBR a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for PBR. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob earns a quality score of 2.2/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +555.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PBR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PBR's 11 active models, average confidence is 8%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob

What is Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob (PBR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $10.70. The Quality of Company score is 2.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PBR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.86, 6 of 11 active models suggest PBR may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $45.49, 154.6% above the current price of $17.86 — a consensus view that PBR is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob's business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.2 mean for PBR?

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob's QOC of 2.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PBR?

CirclFi analyzes PBR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PBR a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for PBR at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob (PBR) has a median fair value of $45.49 — 154.6% above the current price of $17.86 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PBR/ · Methodology

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on PBR.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access