TotalEnergies SE (TTE) Fair Value 2026

TTE · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-17, TotalEnergies SE (TTE) trades at $78.82, approximately 208% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $25.58. QOC: 2.0/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TTE
Price
$78.82
Quality Score
2.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +55.3% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is TotalEnergies SE (TTE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, TotalEnergies SE (TTE) appears undervalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $90.59, 14.9% above the current price of $78.82. Estimates range from $25.58 to $122.38. TTE scores 2.0/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TotalEnergies SE Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($78.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $25.58 -67.6%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $36.70 -53.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $58.48 -25.8%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $122.38 +55.3%

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What Is TotalEnergies SE (TTE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TotalEnergies SE's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $75.92, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $78.82. While the average implied return is -3.7%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +122.8% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $122.38 (+55.3%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $25.58 (-67.6%). This +122.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about TotalEnergies SE's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TTE?

13 of 13 models are currently active for TTE. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TTE's intrinsic value at $25.58, implying -67.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TTE Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, TTE ranks #79 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

As a energy sector, TotalEnergies SE operates in a sector where breakeven oil price is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TTE should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TTE a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for TTE. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for TotalEnergies SE. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, TotalEnergies SE is rated at 2.0/10. This weak-tier score exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +122.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TTE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TTE's 13 active models, average confidence is 7%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TotalEnergies SE Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

EOGEOG Resources, Inc.QOC 10.0MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas CorporationQOC 10.0HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.7PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 9.5FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.QOC 9.5EPSNEpsilon Energy Ltd.QOC 9.4DVNDevon Energy CorporationQOC 9.4SMSM Energy CompanyQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About TotalEnergies SE

What is TotalEnergies SE's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, TotalEnergies SE (TTE) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $25.58. The Quality of Company score is 2.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TTE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $78.82, 7 of 13 active models suggest TTE may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $90.59, 14.9% above the current price of $78.82 — a consensus view that TTE is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TotalEnergies SE's business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.0 mean for TTE?

TotalEnergies SE's QOC of 2.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TTE?

CirclFi analyzes TTE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TTE a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for TTE at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, TotalEnergies SE (TTE) has a median fair value of $90.59 — 14.9% above the current price of $78.82 — as of 2026-07-17.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TTE/ · Methodology

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