YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Fair Value 2026

YPF · Oil & Gas Integrated ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) trades at $50.20, versus a $4.76 median fair value across its 8 active models — 90.5% below the current price. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $17.97.

Key Facts

Ticker
YPF
Price
$50.20
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $4.76, 90.5% below the current price of $50.20. Estimates range from $0.51 to $41.71. YPF scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. YPF’s -90.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Integrated sector median is -24.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy YPF Sociedad Anónima Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give YPF?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($50.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.97 -64.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $6.49 -87.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.51 -97.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.06 -81.9%
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What Is YPF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.51 to $41.71

CirclFi's 8 active models place YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) between $0.51 and $41.71 per share, a spread of 865% of the median. The median of that range — $4.76 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for YPF, against a current price of $50.20.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Regime Cross
$0.51median $4.76$41.71
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$0.51
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$41.71
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for YPF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on YPF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, YPF Sociedad Anónima's intrinsic value is estimated at $4.76, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $50.20. With 8 out of 8 models flagging downside (-90.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $41.71 (-16.9%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $0.51 (-99.0%). This +82.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About YPF?

8 of 13 models are currently active for YPF. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for YPF is $4.76 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $17.97 on its own, implying -64.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does YPF Rank in Oil & Gas Integrated?

Among 20 Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, YPF ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Oil & Gas Integrated space, YPF Sociedad Anónima competes in an environment where production decline rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is YPF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns YPF a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for YPF Sociedad Anónima. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, YPF Sociedad Anónima's fundamental quality profile registers 6.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +82.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every YPF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across YPF's 8 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy YPF Sociedad Anónima Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Integrated Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Integrated stocks with 13-model coverage

SLNGStabilis Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.9VIVKVivakor, Inc.QOC 5.5DECDiversified Energy CompanyQOC 7.2ECTMECA Marcellus Trust IQOC 5.2EEni S.p.A.QOC 7.3SKYQSky Quarry Inc.QOC 4.5TTETotalEnergies SEQOC 2.9CVXChevron CorporationQOC 8.6BPBP p.l.c.QOC 7.4ECEcopetrol S.A.QOC 9.0TGSTransportadora de Gas del Sur S.A.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: SLNG · VIVK · DEC · ECTM · E · SKYQ · TTE · CVX · BP · EC · TGS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to YPF?

7 companies across all industries closest to YPF’s Quality of Company score of 6.2/10.

TTANServiceTitan, Inc.QOC 6.2YQ17 Education & Technology Group Inc.QOC 6.2TACTransAlta CorporationQOC 6.2CRDFCardiff Oncology, Inc.QOC 6.2GGRPThe Glimpse Group IncQOC 6.2QMCIQuoteMedia, Inc.QOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TTAN · YQ · TAC · CRDF · GGRP · QMCI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About YPF Sociedad Anónima’s Valuation?

What is YPF Sociedad Anónima's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF)'s intrinsic value at $4.76 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.51 to $41.71. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $17.97 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is YPF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $50.20, 0 of 8 active models suggest YPF may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $4.76, 90.5% below the current price of $50.20 — a consensus view that YPF is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits YPF Sociedad Anónima's business model in Oil & Gas Integrated.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for YPF?

YPF Sociedad Anónima's QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on YPF?

CirclFi analyzes YPF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on YPF?

Of the 8 models currently active on YPF, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $41.71 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $0.51. CirclFi's published fair value for YPF is the median of that range, $4.76, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 865% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is YPF a value trap in 2026?

YPF Sociedad Anónima's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) has a median fair value of $4.76 — 90.5% below the current price of $50.20 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/YPF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this YPF valuation
  • Financial statements: YPF Sociedad Anónima 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000904851) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for YPF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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