Diversified Energy Company (DEC) Fair Value 2026

DEC · Oil & Gas Integrated ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Diversified Energy Company (DEC) trades at $15.07, versus a $29.86 median fair value across its 9 active models — 98.1% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $29.86.

Key Facts

Ticker
DEC
Price
$15.07
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +198.3% upside with 4% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Diversified Energy Company (DEC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Diversified Energy Company (DEC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $29.86, 98.1% above the current price of $15.07. Estimates range from $12.81 to $49.80. DEC scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. DEC’s +98.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Integrated sector median is -18.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Diversified Energy Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DEC?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.07)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $29.86 +98.1%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $13.77 -8.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $44.96 +198.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.81 -15.0%
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What Is DEC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $12.81 to $49.80

CirclFi's 9 active models place Diversified Energy Company (DEC) between $12.81 and $49.80 per share, a spread of 124% of the median. The median of that range — $29.86 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DEC, against a current price of $15.07.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$12.81median $29.86$49.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$12.81
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$49.80
Model agreement7 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DEC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DEC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Diversified Energy Company (DEC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Diversified Energy Company. Trading at $15.07 against an estimated intrinsic value of $29.86, 7 of 9 active models flag meaningful upside of +98.1% at the median. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $49.80 (+230.5%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $12.81 (-15.0%). This +245.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Diversified Energy Company's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About DEC?

9 of 13 models are currently active for DEC. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DEC is $29.86 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $29.86 on its own, implying +98.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DEC Rank in Oil & Gas Integrated?

Among 19 Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, DEC ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Diversified Energy Company's positioning within the Oil & Gas Integrated segment means that finding and development costs (F&D) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including production growth trajectory — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is DEC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DEC a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Diversified Energy Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Diversified Energy Company scores 7.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +245.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DEC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DEC's 9 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Diversified Energy Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Integrated Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Integrated stocks with 13-model coverage

EEni S.p.A.QOC 7.3SLNGStabilis Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.9SUSuncor Energy Inc.QOC 7.3YPFYPF Sociedad AnónimaQOC 6.2BPBP p.l.c.QOC 7.4VIVKVivakor, Inc.QOC 5.5ECTMECA Marcellus Trust IQOC 5.2PBRPetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasQOC 2.4XOMExxonMobil Holdings CorporationQOC 8.3ECEcopetrol S.A.QOC 9.0TGSTransportadora de Gas del Sur S.A.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: E · SLNG · SU · YPF · BP · VIVK · ECTM · PBR · XOM · EC · TGS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DEC?

7 companies across all industries closest to DEC’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

AEBIAebi Schmidt Holding AGQOC 7.2GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.QOC 7.2DOUGDouglas Elliman Inc.QOC 7.2MTXMinerals Technologies Inc.QOC 7.2SKKYSkkynet Cloud Systems, Inc.QOC 7.2CBLCBL & Associates Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AEBI · GHG · DOUG · MTX · SKKY · CBL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Diversified Energy Company’s Valuation?

What is Diversified Energy Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Diversified Energy Company (DEC)'s intrinsic value at $29.86 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.81 to $49.80. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $29.86 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DEC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.07, 7 of 9 active models suggest DEC may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $29.86, 98.1% above the current price of $15.07 — a consensus view that DEC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Diversified Energy Company's business model in Oil & Gas Integrated.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for DEC?

Diversified Energy Company's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DEC?

CirclFi analyzes DEC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DEC?

Of the 9 models currently active on DEC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $49.80 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $12.81. CirclFi's published fair value for DEC is the median of that range, $29.86, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 124% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DEC a value trap in 2026?

Diversified Energy Company's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Diversified Energy Company (DEC) has a median fair value of $29.86 — 98.1% above the current price of $15.07 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DEC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DEC valuation
  • Financial statements: Diversified Energy Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001922446) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DEC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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