Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) Fair Value 2026

MGY · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (15/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) trades at $26.65, versus a $19.59 median fair value across its 12 active models — 26.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 15/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $23.72.

Key Facts

Ticker
MGY
Price
$26.65
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
15/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +38.1% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $19.59, 26.5% below the current price of $26.65. Estimates range from $5.47 to $43.70. MGY scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 15/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MGY’s -26.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MGY?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($26.65)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.72 -11.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $11.58 -56.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.49 -23.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $36.82 +38.1%
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What Is MGY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $5.47 to $43.70

CirclFi's 12 active models place Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) between $5.47 and $43.70 per share, a spread of 195% of the median. The median of that range — $19.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MGY, against a current price of $26.65.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$5.47median $19.59$43.70
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$5.47
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$43.70
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MGY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MGY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $19.59, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $26.65. With 9 out of 12 models flagging downside (-26.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $43.70 (+64.0%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $5.47 (-79.5%). This +143.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MGY?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MGY. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MGY is $19.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $23.72 on its own, implying -11.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MGY Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, MGY ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places MGY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Within the Oil & Gas E&P space, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation competes in an environment where capital efficiency ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MGY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MGY a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +143.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MGY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MGY's 12 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc.QOC 9.0COPConocoPhillipsQOC 8.9BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 8.9TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1SMSM Energy CompanyQOC 8.9CNXCNX Resources CorporationQOC 8.2REIRing Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8VETVermilion Energy Inc.QOC 5.3

Read investment analysis: REPX · COP · BSM · PR · TPL · SM · CNX · REI · VET

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MGY?

7 companies across all industries closest to MGY’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

TDYTeledyne Technologies IncorporatedQOC 8.9CNMCore & Main, Inc.QOC 8.9FBPFirst BanCorp.QOC 8.9CPACCementos Pacasmayo S.A.A.QOC 8.9DAKTDaktronics, Inc.QOC 8.9BSXBoston Scientific CorporationQOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TDY · CNM · FBP · CPAC · DAKT · BSX · NVDA

Where Does MGY Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

MGY is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY)'s intrinsic value at $19.59 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.47 to $43.70. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $23.72 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MGY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $26.65, 2 of 12 active models suggest MGY may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $19.59, 26.5% below the current price of $26.65 — a consensus view that MGY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for MGY?

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MGY?

CirclFi analyzes MGY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MGY?

Of the 12 models currently active on MGY, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $43.70 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $5.47. CirclFi's published fair value for MGY is the median of that range, $19.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 195% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MGY a value trap in 2026?

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's Value Trap score is 15/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) has a median fair value of $19.59 — 26.5% below the current price of $26.65 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MGY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MGY valuation
  • Financial statements: Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001698990) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MGY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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