Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) Fair Value 2026

OBE · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) trades at $11.45, versus a $7.66 median fair value across its 10 active models — 33.1% below the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.91.

Key Facts

Ticker
OBE
Price
$11.45
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +69.1% upside with 41% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $7.66, 33.1% below the current price of $11.45. Estimates range from $2.12 to $23.81. OBE scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. OBE’s -33.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -3.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Obsidian Energy Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OBE?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.45)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $2.91 -74.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.91 -65.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $7.97 -30.4%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $19.36 +69.1%
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What Is OBE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $2.12 to $23.81

CirclFi's 10 active models place Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) between $2.12 and $23.81 per share, a spread of 283% of the median. The median of that range — $7.66 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OBE, against a current price of $11.45.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Regime Cross
$2.12median $7.66$23.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$2.12
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$23.81
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OBE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OBE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Obsidian Energy Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.66. Trading at its current price of $11.45, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -33.1%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +107.9% (fair value: $23.81), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -81.5% ($2.12). The spread between these extremes — +189.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About OBE?

10 of 13 models are currently active for OBE. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OBE is $7.66 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.91 on its own, implying -74.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OBE Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, OBE ranks #50 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Obsidian Energy Ltd.'s positioning within the Oil & Gas E&P segment means that production decline rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including production growth trajectory — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is OBE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OBE a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Obsidian Energy Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Obsidian Energy Ltd. scores 6.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +189.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OBE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OBE's 10 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Obsidian Energy Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

REIRing Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8GTEGran Tierra Energy Inc.QOC 6.7EGYVAALCO Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8BTEBaytex Energy Corp.QOC 6.7GFRGreenfire Resources Ltd.QOC 6.8KGEIKolibri Global Energy Inc.QOC 6.6LEENLeopard Energy, Inc.QOC 5.3COPConocoPhillipsQOC 8.9OXYOccidental Petroleum CorporationQOC 8.2TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: REI · GTE · EGY · BTE · GFR · KGEI · LEEN · COP · OXY · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OBE?

7 companies across all industries closest to OBE’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

CANGCango Inc.QOC 6.8LCTCLifeloc Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.8NREFNexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 6.8OSUROraSure Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.8EMAEmera IncorporatedQOC 6.8IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CANG · LCTC · NREF · OSUR · EMA · IFF · NVDA

Where Does OBE Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

OBE is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Obsidian Energy Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Obsidian Energy Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE)'s intrinsic value at $7.66 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $2.12 to $23.81. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.91 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OBE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.45, 2 of 10 active models suggest OBE may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $7.66, 33.1% below the current price of $11.45 — a consensus view that OBE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Obsidian Energy Ltd.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for OBE?

Obsidian Energy Ltd.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OBE?

CirclFi analyzes OBE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OBE?

Of the 10 models currently active on OBE, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $23.81 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $2.12. CirclFi's published fair value for OBE is the median of that range, $7.66, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 283% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OBE a value trap in 2026?

Obsidian Energy Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) has a median fair value of $7.66 — 33.1% below the current price of $11.45 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OBE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OBE valuation
  • Financial statements: Obsidian Energy Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001334388) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OBE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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