Hess Midstream LP (HESM) Fair Value 2026

HESM · Oil & Gas Midstream ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Hess Midstream LP (HESM) trades at $39.83, versus a $44.95 median fair value across its 11 active models — 12.8% above the current price. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $91.84.

Key Facts

Ticker
HESM
Price
$39.83
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +130.6% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Hess Midstream LP (HESM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Hess Midstream LP (HESM) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $44.95, 12.8% above the current price of $39.83. Estimates range from $18.97 to $91.84. HESM scores 9.2/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HESM’s +12.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Midstream sector median is -9.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hess Midstream LP Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HESM?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.83)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $91.84 +130.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $40.94 +2.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $47.15 +18.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $65.53 +64.5%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is HESM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $18.97 to $91.84

CirclFi's 11 active models place Hess Midstream LP (HESM) between $18.97 and $91.84 per share, a spread of 162% of the median. The median of that range — $44.95 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HESM, against a current price of $39.83.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$18.97median $44.95$91.84
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$18.97
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$91.84
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HESM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HESM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hess Midstream LP (HESM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hess Midstream LP's intrinsic value is estimated at $44.95, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $39.83. With a median implied return of +12.8% across a split 6–3 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +182.9% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +130.6% (fair value: $91.84), while EROIC is the most conservative at -52.4% ($18.97). The spread between these extremes — +182.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HESM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for HESM. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HESM is $44.95 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $91.84 on its own, implying +130.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HESM Rank in Oil & Gas Midstream?

Among 53 Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, HESM ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places HESM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks →

As a oil and gas company, Hess Midstream LP operates in a sector where capital efficiency ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HESM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is HESM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HESM a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Hess Midstream LP. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Hess Midstream LP's fundamental quality profile registers 9.2/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +182.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HESM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HESM's 11 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hess Midstream LP Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas Midstream stocks with 13-model coverage

BANLCBL International LimitedQOC 2.5FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.QOC 9.0GLNGGolar LNG LimitedQOC 2.7CQPCheniere Energy Partners, L.P.QOC 8.9FROFrontline plcQOC 2.7WESWestern Midstream Partners, LPQOC 8.8KMIKinder Morgan, Inc.QOC 8.3TRPTC Energy CorporationQOC 7.7NGLNGL Energy Partners LPQOC 5.8

Read investment analysis: BANL · FLNG · GLNG · CQP · FRO · WES · KMI · TRP · NGL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HESM?

7 companies across all industries closest to HESM’s Quality of Company score of 9.2/10.

IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc.QOC 9.2AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 9.2CWCurtiss-Wright CorporationQOC 9.2CSLCarlisle Companies IncorporatedQOC 9.2DXCMDexCom, Inc.QOC 9.2ESPEspey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.QOC 9.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IBP · AUPH · CW · CSL · DXCM · ESP · NVDA

Where Does HESM Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas Midstream Rankings?

HESM is ranked against every other Oil & Gas Midstream stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas Midstream stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hess Midstream LP’s Valuation?

What is Hess Midstream LP's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hess Midstream LP (HESM)'s intrinsic value at $44.95 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $18.97 to $91.84. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $91.84 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HESM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.83, 8 of 11 active models suggest HESM may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $44.95, 12.8% above the current price of $39.83 — a consensus view that HESM is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hess Midstream LP's business model in Oil & Gas Midstream.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for HESM?

Hess Midstream LP's QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HESM?

CirclFi analyzes HESM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HESM?

Of the 11 models currently active on HESM, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $91.84 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $18.97. CirclFi's published fair value for HESM is the median of that range, $44.95, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 162% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HESM a value trap in 2026?

Hess Midstream LP's Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Hess Midstream LP (HESM) has a median fair value of $44.95 — 12.8% above the current price of $39.83 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HESM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HESM valuation
  • Financial statements: Hess Midstream LP 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001789832) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HESM as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on HESM.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for HESM Unlock All 11 — $39/mo