TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Fair Value 2026

TMDX · Medical Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) trades at $91.75, versus a $41.73 median fair value across its 9 active models — 54.5% below the current price. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $12.92.

Key Facts

Ticker
TMDX
Price
$91.75
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $41.73, 54.5% below the current price of $91.75. Estimates range from $12.49 to $84.67. TMDX scores 9.2/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TMDX’s -54.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Devices sector median is -43.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TransMedics Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TMDX?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($91.75)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.92 -85.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $41.73 -54.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $82.91 -9.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.94 -73.9%
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What Is TMDX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $12.49 to $84.67

CirclFi's 9 active models place TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) between $12.49 and $84.67 per share, a spread of 173% of the median. The median of that range — $41.73 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TMDX, against a current price of $91.75.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$12.49median $41.73$84.67
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$12.49
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$84.67
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TMDX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TMDX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TransMedics Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $41.73, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $91.75. With 9 out of 9 models flagging downside (-54.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $84.67 (-7.7%), versus RCMH-DCF at $12.49 (-86.4%). This +78.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TMDX?

9 of 13 models are currently active for TMDX. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for TMDX is $41.73 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $12.92 on its own, implying -85.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TMDX Rank in Medical Devices?

Among 157 Medical Devices stocks, TMDX ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places TMDX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Devices Stocks →

Within the Medical Devices space, TransMedics Group, Inc. competes in an environment where R&D productivity ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TMDX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TMDX a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for TransMedics Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, TransMedics Group, Inc. is rated at 9.2/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +78.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TMDX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TMDX's 9 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TransMedics Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

UFPTUFP Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.2ELMDElectromed, Inc.QOC 9.0DXCMDexCom, Inc.QOC 9.2SYKStryker CorporationQOC 9.0GMEDGlobus Medical, Inc.QOC 9.2INSPInspire Medical Systems, Inc.QOC 9.0NVCRNovoCure LimitedQOC 7.1CBLLCeriBell, Inc.QOC 6.1VTAKCatheter Precision, Inc.QOC 5.0IRMDIRADIMED CORPORATIONQOC 9.8PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: UFPT · ELMD · DXCM · SYK · GMED · INSP · NVCR · CBLL · VTAK · IRMD · PODD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TMDX?

7 companies across all industries closest to TMDX’s Quality of Company score of 9.2/10.

YMMFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.QOC 9.2VICRVicor CorporationQOC 9.2ALLThe Allstate CorporationQOC 9.2FTDRFrontdoor, Inc.QOC 9.2HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 9.2WHDCactus, Inc.QOC 9.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: YMM · VICR · ALL · FTDR · HALO · WHD · NVDA

Where Does TMDX Sit in CirclFi's Medical Devices Rankings?

TMDX is ranked against every other Medical Devices stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Devices stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About TransMedics Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is TransMedics Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)'s intrinsic value at $41.73 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.49 to $84.67. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $12.92 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TMDX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $91.75, 0 of 9 active models suggest TMDX may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $41.73, 54.5% below the current price of $91.75 — a consensus view that TMDX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TransMedics Group, Inc.'s business model in Medical Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for TMDX?

TransMedics Group, Inc.'s QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TMDX?

CirclFi analyzes TMDX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TMDX?

Of the 9 models currently active on TMDX, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $84.67 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $12.49. CirclFi's published fair value for TMDX is the median of that range, $41.73, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 173% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TMDX a value trap in 2026?

TransMedics Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) has a median fair value of $41.73 — 54.5% below the current price of $91.75 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TMDX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TMDX valuation
  • Financial statements: TransMedics Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001756262) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TMDX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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