What Is TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TransMedics Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $45.32, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $75.74. With 11 out of 13 models flagging downside (-40.2% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $110.77 (+46.2%), versus Dynamic NAV at $2.29 (-97.0%). This +143.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Markov DDM lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About TMDX?
13 of 13 models are currently active for TMDX. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TMDX's intrinsic value at $28.19, implying -62.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does TMDX Rank in Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus?
Among 25 Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus stocks, TMDX ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places TMDX in the top tier.
TransMedics Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is TMDX a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TMDX a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for TransMedics Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, TransMedics Group, Inc. is rated at 8.0/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +143.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every TMDX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across TMDX's 13 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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