Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) Fair Value 2026

INSP · Medical Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) trades at $60.82, versus a $41.29 median fair value across its 11 active models — 32.1% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $23.87.

Key Facts

Ticker
INSP
Price
$60.82
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $41.29, 32.1% below the current price of $60.82. Estimates range from $15.34 to $138.71. INSP scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. INSP’s -32.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Devices sector median is -43.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give INSP?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($60.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.87 -60.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $37.89 -37.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $54.17 -10.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.34 -74.8%
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What Is INSP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $15.34 to $138.71

CirclFi's 11 active models place Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) between $15.34 and $138.71 per share, a spread of 299% of the median. The median of that range — $41.29 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for INSP, against a current price of $60.82.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Markov DDM
$15.34median $41.29$138.71
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$15.34
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$138.71
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for INSP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on INSP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $41.29. Trading at its current price of $60.82, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -32.1%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $138.71 (+128.1%), versus ML-RIV at $15.34 (-74.8%). This +202.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About INSP?

11 of 13 models are currently active for INSP. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for INSP is $41.29 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $23.87 on its own, implying -60.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does INSP Rank in Medical Devices?

Among 157 Medical Devices stocks, INSP ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places INSP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Devices Stocks →

The Medical Devices sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biopharma enterprise businesses. For Inspire Medical Systems, Inc., metrics like revenue per drug provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is INSP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns INSP a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. scores 9.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +202.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every INSP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across INSP's 11 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

SYKStryker CorporationQOC 9.0BSXBoston Scientific CorporationQOC 8.9ELMDElectromed, Inc.QOC 9.0PENPenumbra, Inc.QOC 8.9TMDXTransMedics Group, Inc.QOC 9.2ABTAbbott LaboratoriesQOC 8.8MASS908 Devices Inc.QOC 7.1RPIDRapid Micro Biosystems, Inc.QOC 6.1MBOTMicrobot Medical Inc.QOC 4.9IRMDIRADIMED CORPORATIONQOC 9.8PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: SYK · BSX · ELMD · PEN · TMDX · ABT · MASS · RPID · MBOT · IRMD · PODD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to INSP?

7 companies across all industries closest to INSP’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

CATCaterpillar Inc.QOC 9.0OKTAOkta, Inc.QOC 9.0IBEXIBEX LimitedQOC 9.0QNSTQuinStreet, Inc.QOC 9.0IMAXIMAX CorporationQOC 9.0GTESGates Industrial Corporation Ltd.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CAT · OKTA · IBEX · QNST · IMAX · GTES · NVDA

Where Does INSP Sit in CirclFi's Medical Devices Rankings?

INSP is ranked against every other Medical Devices stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Devices stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP)'s intrinsic value at $41.29 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.34 to $138.71. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $23.87 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is INSP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $60.82, 2 of 11 active models suggest INSP may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $41.29, 32.1% below the current price of $60.82 — a consensus view that INSP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.'s business model in Medical Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for INSP?

Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on INSP?

CirclFi analyzes INSP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on INSP?

Of the 11 models currently active on INSP, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $138.71 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $15.34. CirclFi's published fair value for INSP is the median of that range, $41.29, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 299% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is INSP a value trap in 2026?

Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) has a median fair value of $41.29 — 32.1% below the current price of $60.82 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/INSP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this INSP valuation
  • Financial statements: Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001609550) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for INSP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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