Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) Fair Value 2026

PEN · Medical Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (11/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) trades at $321.00, versus a $84.07 median fair value across its 8 active models — 73.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 11/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $73.59.

Key Facts

Ticker
PEN
Price
$321.00
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
11/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $84.07, 73.8% below the current price of $321.00. Estimates range from $56.72 to $184.07. PEN scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 11/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PEN’s -73.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Devices sector median is -43.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Penumbra, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PEN?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($321.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $73.59 -77.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $84.99 -73.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $126.66 -60.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $56.72 -82.3%
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What Is PEN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $56.72 to $184.07

CirclFi's 8 active models place Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) between $56.72 and $184.07 per share, a spread of 151% of the median. The median of that range — $84.07 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PEN, against a current price of $321.00.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$56.72median $84.07$184.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$56.72
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$184.07
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PEN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PEN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Penumbra, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $84.07, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $321.00. With 8 out of 8 models flagging downside (-73.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $184.07 (-42.7%), versus EROIC at $56.72 (-82.3%). This +39.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About PEN?

8 of 13 models are currently active for PEN. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for PEN is $84.07 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $73.59 on its own, implying -77.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PEN Rank in Medical Devices?

Among 157 Medical Devices stocks, PEN ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places PEN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Devices Stocks →

As a biopharma enterprise, Penumbra, Inc. operates in a sector where FDA approval probability is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating PEN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is PEN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PEN a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Penumbra, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Penumbra, Inc. is rated at 8.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +39.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PEN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PEN's 8 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Penumbra, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

BSXBoston Scientific CorporationQOC 8.9ABTAbbott LaboratoriesQOC 8.8INSPInspire Medical Systems, Inc.QOC 9.0TCMDTactile Systems Technology, Inc.QOC 8.8SYKStryker CorporationQOC 9.0ESMCEscalon Medical Corp.QOC 8.7MXCTMaxCyte, Inc.QOC 7.0AIDX20/20 Biolabs, Inc.QOC 6.0TRIBTrinity Biotech plcQOC 4.8IRMDIRADIMED CORPORATIONQOC 9.8PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: BSX · ABT · INSP · TCMD · SYK · ESMC · MXCT · AIDX · TRIB · IRMD · PODD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PEN?

7 companies across all industries closest to PEN’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

UNTYUnity Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.9OBTOrange County Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.9AMEAMETEK, Inc.QOC 8.9SHBIShore Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.9XZOExzeo Group, Inc.QOC 8.9AIZAssurant, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: UNTY · OBT · AME · SHBI · XZO · AIZ · NVDA

Where Does PEN Sit in CirclFi's Medical Devices Rankings?

PEN is ranked against every other Medical Devices stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Devices stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Penumbra, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Penumbra, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Penumbra, Inc. (PEN)'s intrinsic value at $84.07 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $56.72 to $184.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $73.59 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PEN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $321.00, 0 of 8 active models suggest PEN may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $84.07, 73.8% below the current price of $321.00 — a consensus view that PEN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Penumbra, Inc.'s business model in Medical Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for PEN?

Penumbra, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PEN?

CirclFi analyzes PEN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PEN?

Of the 8 models currently active on PEN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $184.07 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $56.72. CirclFi's published fair value for PEN is the median of that range, $84.07, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 151% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PEN a value trap in 2026?

Penumbra, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 11/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) has a median fair value of $84.07 — 73.8% below the current price of $321.00 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PEN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PEN valuation
  • Financial statements: Penumbra, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001321732) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PEN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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