Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) Fair Value 2026

ACLS · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) trades at $122.40, versus a $39.80 median fair value across its 10 active models — 67.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $39.66.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACLS
Price
$122.40
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $39.80, 67.5% below the current price of $122.40. Estimates range from $17.54 to $231.79. ACLS scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ACLS’s -67.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials sector median is -71.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Axcelis Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ACLS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($122.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $39.66 -67.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $32.99 -73.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $48.48 -60.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $73.00 -40.4%
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What Is ACLS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $17.54 to $231.79

CirclFi's 10 active models place Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) between $17.54 and $231.79 per share, a spread of 538% of the median. The median of that range — $39.80 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ACLS, against a current price of $122.40.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$17.54median $39.80$231.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$17.54
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$231.79
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ACLS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ACLS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Axcelis Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $39.80, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $122.40. With 8 out of 10 models flagging downside (-67.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $231.79 (+89.4%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $17.54 (-85.7%). This +175.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Axcelis Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ACLS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ACLS. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ACLS is $39.80 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $39.66 on its own, implying -67.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACLS Rank in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials?

Among 32 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, ACLS ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places ACLS in the top tier.

Within the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials space, Axcelis Technologies, Inc. competes in an environment where average selling price (ASP) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ACLS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACLS a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Axcelis Technologies, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Axcelis Technologies, Inc. is rated at 8.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +175.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACLS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACLS's 10 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Axcelis Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks with 13-model coverage

CAMTCamtek Ltd.QOC 9.0PLABPhotronics, Inc.QOC 8.9AMATApplied Materials, Inc.QOC 9.4ACMRACM Research, Inc.QOC 8.7ONTOOnto Innovation Inc.QOC 9.4SCIASCI Engineered Materials, Inc.QOC 8.4SODISolitron Devices, Inc.QOC 7.9COHUCohu, Inc.QOC 6.8DQDaqo New Energy Corp.QOC 2.4KLACKLA CorporationQOC 9.8ASMLASML Holding N.V.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: CAMT · PLAB · AMAT · ACMR · ONTO · SCIA · SODI · COHU · DQ · KLAC · ASML

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ACLS?

7 companies across all industries closest to ACLS’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.9KOThe Coca-Cola CompanyQOC 8.9BSXBoston Scientific CorporationQOC 8.9ARHSArhaus, Inc.QOC 8.9CPACCementos Pacasmayo S.A.A.QOC 8.9XZOExzeo Group, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KEYS · KO · BSX · ARHS · CPAC · XZO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Axcelis Technologies, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Axcelis Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS)'s intrinsic value at $39.80 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $17.54 to $231.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $39.66 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACLS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $122.40, 2 of 10 active models suggest ACLS may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $39.80, 67.5% below the current price of $122.40 — a consensus view that ACLS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Axcelis Technologies, Inc.'s business model in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for ACLS?

Axcelis Technologies, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACLS?

CirclFi analyzes ACLS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ACLS?

Of the 10 models currently active on ACLS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $231.79 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $17.54. CirclFi's published fair value for ACLS is the median of that range, $39.80, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 538% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ACLS a value trap in 2026?

Axcelis Technologies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) has a median fair value of $39.80 — 67.5% below the current price of $122.40 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ACLS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ACLS valuation
  • Financial statements: Axcelis Technologies, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001113232) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ACLS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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