NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT) Fair Value 2026

NTCT · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT) trades at $40.99, versus a $43.31 median fair value across its 9 active models — 5.6% above the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $65.80.

Key Facts

Ticker
NTCT
Price
$40.99
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +60.5% upside with 74% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $43.31, within 5.6% of the current price of $40.99. Estimates range from $16.64 to $65.80. NTCT scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. NTCT’s +5.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -25.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NetScout Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NTCT?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $65.80 +60.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $41.30 +0.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.40 -35.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.64 -59.4%
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What Is NTCT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $16.64 to $65.80

CirclFi's 9 active models place NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT) between $16.64 and $65.80 per share, a spread of 114% of the median. The median of that range — $43.31 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NTCT, against a current price of $40.99.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$16.64median $43.31$65.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$16.64
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$65.80
Model agreement5 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NTCT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NTCT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NetScout Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $43.31. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $40.99 (implied upside of +5.6%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 9 bullish models. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +60.5% (fair value: $65.80), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -59.4% ($16.64). The spread between these extremes — +119.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NTCT?

9 of 13 models are currently active for NTCT. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NTCT is $43.31 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $65.80 on its own, implying +60.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NTCT Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 187 Software - Infrastructure stocks, NTCT ranks #24 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places NTCT in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

As a software business, NetScout Systems, Inc. operates in a sector where net revenue retention (NRR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NTCT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NTCT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NTCT a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for NetScout Systems, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, NetScout Systems, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +119.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NTCT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NTCT's 9 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NetScout Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

NTNXNutanix, Inc.QOC 8.6PAYSPaysign, Inc.QOC 8.6TUYATuya Inc.QOC 8.7GCTGigaCloud Technology Inc.QOC 8.6TWLOTwilio Inc.QOC 8.8PAYOPayoneer Global Inc.QOC 8.5IOTSamsara Inc.QOC 7.2AISPAirship AI Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.5SWMRSwarmer, IncQOC 3.7FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: NTNX · PAYS · TUYA · GCT · TWLO · PAYO · IOT · AISP · SWMR · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NTCT?

7 companies across all industries closest to NTCT’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

ZWSZurn Elkay Water Solutions CorporationQOC 8.6CSWCSW Industrials, Inc.QOC 8.6WFRDWeatherford International plcQOC 8.6FINVFinVolution GroupQOC 8.6VITLVital Farms, Inc.QOC 8.6NOCNorthrop Grumman CorporationQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ZWS · CSW · WFRD · FINV · VITL · NOC · NVDA

Where Does NTCT Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

NTCT is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About NetScout Systems, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is NetScout Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT)'s intrinsic value at $43.31 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $16.64 to $65.80. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $65.80 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NTCT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.99, 6 of 9 active models suggest NTCT may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $43.31, within 5.6% of the current price of $40.99 — a consensus view that NTCT is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NetScout Systems, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for NTCT?

NetScout Systems, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NTCT?

CirclFi analyzes NTCT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NTCT?

Of the 9 models currently active on NTCT, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $65.80 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $16.64. CirclFi's published fair value for NTCT is the median of that range, $43.31, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 114% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NTCT a value trap in 2026?

NetScout Systems, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT) has a median fair value of $43.31 — within 5.6% of the current price of $40.99 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NTCT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NTCT valuation
  • Financial statements: NetScout Systems, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001078075) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NTCT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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