Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) Fair Value 2026

QLYS · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) trades at $188.59, versus a $126.87 median fair value across its 10 active models — 32.7% below the current price. QOC: 9.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $204.99.

Key Facts

Ticker
QLYS
Price
$188.59
Quality Score
9.7/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +8.7% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $126.87, 32.7% below the current price of $188.59. Estimates range from $51.25 to $254.54. QLYS scores 9.7/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. QLYS’s -32.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -22.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Qualys, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give QLYS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($188.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $204.99 +8.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $62.46 -66.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $131.48 -30.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $116.87 -38.0%
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What Is QLYS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $51.25 to $254.54

CirclFi's 10 active models place Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) between $51.25 and $254.54 per share, a spread of 160% of the median. The median of that range — $126.87 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for QLYS, against a current price of $188.59.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$51.25median $126.87$254.54
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$51.25
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$254.54
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for QLYS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on QLYS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Qualys, Inc. at its current price of $188.59. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $126.87 (-32.7% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $254.54 (+35.0%), versus EROIC at $51.25 (-72.8%). This +107.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About QLYS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for QLYS. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for QLYS is $126.87 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $204.99 on its own, implying +8.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does QLYS Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 186 Software - Infrastructure stocks, QLYS ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.7 places QLYS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

Within the Software - Infrastructure space, Qualys, Inc. competes in an environment where free cash flow margin often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is QLYS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns QLYS a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Qualys, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Qualys, Inc. is rated at 9.7/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +107.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every QLYS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across QLYS's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Qualys, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7FFIVF5, Inc.QOC 9.6TAOPTaoping Inc.QOC 1.8MSFTMicrosoft CorporationQOC 9.5VIVOVivoPower PLCQOC 2.0ATENA10 Networks, Inc.QOC 9.3DBXDropbox, Inc.QOC 8.1AIC3.ai, Inc.QOC 5.9RPMTRego Payment Architectures, Inc.QOC 5.0

Read investment analysis: FTNT · FFIV · TAOP · MSFT · VIVO · ATEN · DBX · AI · RPMT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to QLYS?

7 companies across all industries closest to QLYS’s Quality of Company score of 9.7/10.

USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc.QOC 9.7NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.6HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7ZMZoom Communications, Inc.QOC 9.6LRCXLam Research CorporationQOC 9.7PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 9.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: USLM · NSSC · HRTG · ZM · LRCX · PODD · NVDA

Where Does QLYS Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

QLYS is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Qualys, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Qualys, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Qualys, Inc. (QLYS)'s intrinsic value at $126.87 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $51.25 to $254.54. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $204.99 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is QLYS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $188.59, 3 of 10 active models suggest QLYS may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $126.87, 32.7% below the current price of $188.59 — a consensus view that QLYS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Qualys, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.7 mean for QLYS?

Qualys, Inc.'s QOC of 9.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on QLYS?

CirclFi analyzes QLYS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on QLYS?

Of the 10 models currently active on QLYS, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $254.54 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $51.25. CirclFi's published fair value for QLYS is the median of that range, $126.87, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 160% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is QLYS a value trap in 2026?

Qualys, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) has a median fair value of $126.87 — 32.7% below the current price of $188.59 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/QLYS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this QLYS valuation
  • Financial statements: Qualys, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001107843) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for QLYS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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