Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) Fair Value 2026

DBX · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) trades at $35.88, versus a $54.27 median fair value across its 9 active models — 51.2% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $113.82.

Key Facts

Ticker
DBX
Price
$35.88
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +217.2% upside with 73% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $54.27, 51.2% above the current price of $35.88. Estimates range from $7.57 to $113.82. DBX scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. DBX’s +51.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -22.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Dropbox, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DBX?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($35.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $113.82 +217.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.57 -78.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $54.27 +51.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $66.35 +84.9%
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What Is DBX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $7.57 to $113.82

CirclFi's 9 active models place Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) between $7.57 and $113.82 per share, a spread of 196% of the median. The median of that range — $54.27 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DBX, against a current price of $35.88.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$7.57median $54.27$113.82
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$7.57
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$113.82
Model agreement7 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DBX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DBX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Dropbox, Inc.. Trading at $35.88 against an estimated intrinsic value of $54.27, 7 of 9 active models flag meaningful upside of +51.2% at the median. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $113.82 (+217.2%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $7.57 (-78.9%). This +296.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Dropbox, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DBX?

9 of 13 models are currently active for DBX. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DBX is $54.27 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $113.82 on its own, implying +217.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DBX Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 186 Software - Infrastructure stocks, DBX ranks #48 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places DBX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

Dropbox, Inc.'s positioning within the Software - Infrastructure segment means that free cash flow margin plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including pricing power — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is DBX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DBX a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Dropbox, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Dropbox, Inc. scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +296.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DBX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DBX's 9 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Dropbox, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

PRGSProgress Software CorporationQOC 8.1WEXWEX Inc.QOC 8.0FOURShift4 Payments, Inc.QOC 8.1VRSNVeriSign, Inc.QOC 8.0NTNXNutanix, Inc.QOC 8.1RPDRapid7, Inc.QOC 7.9AEVAAeva Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.9RPMTRego Payment Architectures, Inc.QOC 5.0FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: PRGS · WEX · FOUR · VRSN · NTNX · RPD · AEVA · RPMT · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DBX?

7 companies across all industries closest to DBX’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

DELLDell Technologies Inc.QOC 8.1LSBKLake Shore Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.1ARESAres Management CorporationQOC 8.1CBKMConsumers Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.1BYRNByrna Technologies Inc.QOC 8.1EFCEllington Financial Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DELL · LSBK · ARES · CBKM · BYRN · EFC · NVDA

Where Does DBX Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

DBX is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Dropbox, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Dropbox, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Dropbox, Inc. (DBX)'s intrinsic value at $54.27 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $7.57 to $113.82. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $113.82 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DBX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $35.88, 7 of 9 active models suggest DBX may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $54.27, 51.2% above the current price of $35.88 — a consensus view that DBX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Dropbox, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for DBX?

Dropbox, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DBX?

CirclFi analyzes DBX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DBX?

Of the 9 models currently active on DBX, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $113.82 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $7.57. CirclFi's published fair value for DBX is the median of that range, $54.27, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 196% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DBX a value trap in 2026?

Dropbox, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) has a median fair value of $54.27 — 51.2% above the current price of $35.88 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DBX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DBX valuation
  • Financial statements: Dropbox, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001467623) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DBX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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