Rapid7, Inc. (RPD) Fair Value 2026

RPD · Services-Prepackaged Software ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Rapid7, Inc. (RPD) trades at $11.92, approximately 70% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $39.60. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RPD
Price
$11.92
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +342.7% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.92)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$39.60 +232.2%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$21.77 +82.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$23.41 +96.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$52.77 +342.7%

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What Is Rapid7, Inc. (RPD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Rapid7, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $22.34, suggesting a +87.4% average upside from the current price of $11.92. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $52.77 (+342.7%), versus ML-RIV at $3.92 (-67.1%). This +409.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About RPD?

11 of 13 models are currently active for RPD. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates RPD's intrinsic value at $39.60, implying +232.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RPD Rank in Services-Prepackaged Software?

Among 208 Services-Prepackaged Software stocks, RPD ranks #43 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places RPD in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks →

Rapid7, Inc.'s positioning within the Services-Prepackaged Software segment means that annual recurring revenue (ARR) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including AI/ML integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is RPD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RPD a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Rapid7, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Rapid7, Inc. scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +409.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RPD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RPD's 11 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Rapid7, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Prepackaged Software stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CRM · CVLT · EGAN · MANH · MSFT

See all Services-Prepackaged Software stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Rapid7, Inc.

What is Rapid7, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Rapid7, Inc. (RPD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $39.60. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RPD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.92, 7 of 11 active models suggest RPD may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Rapid7, Inc.'s business model in Services-Prepackaged Software.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for RPD?

Rapid7, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RPD?

CirclFi analyzes RPD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RPD a value trap in 2026?

Rapid7, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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