Aeva Technologies, Inc. (AEVA) Fair Value 2026

AEVA · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Aeva Technologies, Inc. (AEVA) trades at $18.81, approximately 567% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.82. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AEVA
Price
$18.81
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($18.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $2.82 -85.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $2.51 -86.7%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $0.21 -98.9%
PWERM
Medium Conviction
 $18.37 -2.4%

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What Is Aeva Technologies, Inc. (AEVA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aeva Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $4.08, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $18.81. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-78.3% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $18.37 (-2.4%), while First Chicago — the most conservative — estimates $0.21 (-98.9%). This +96.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Aeva Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AEVA?

9 of 13 models are currently active for AEVA. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates AEVA's intrinsic value at $2.82, implying -85.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AEVA Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 13 Software - Infrastructure stocks, AEVA ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 indicates above-average quality.

As a technology sector, Aeva Technologies, Inc. operates in a sector where net revenue retention (NRR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AEVA should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AEVA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AEVA a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Aeva Technologies, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Aeva Technologies, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.0/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +96.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AEVA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AEVA's 9 active models, average confidence is 14%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aeva Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

ACIWACI Worldwide, Inc.QOC 9.9AKAMAkamai Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.9APPNAppian CorporationQOC 7.5AIOTPowerFleet, Inc.QOC 6.4AIC3.ai, Inc.QOC 6.2AISPAirship AI Holdings, IncQOC 5.0AGPUAxe Compute Inc.QOC 4.9AIXCAIxCrypto Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.3

Read investment analysis: ACIW · AKAM · APPN · AIOT · AI

Frequently Asked Questions About Aeva Technologies, Inc.

What is Aeva Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Aeva Technologies, Inc. (AEVA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.82. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AEVA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $18.81, 0 of 9 active models suggest AEVA may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aeva Technologies, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for AEVA?

Aeva Technologies, Inc.'s QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AEVA?

CirclFi analyzes AEVA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AEVA a value trap in 2026?

Aeva Technologies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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