Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) Fair Value 2026

PRGS · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) trades at $37.20, versus a $44.78 median fair value across its 11 active models — 20.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $89.65.

Key Facts

Ticker
PRGS
Price
$37.20
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +141.0% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $44.78, 20.4% above the current price of $37.20. Estimates range from $14.21 to $89.65. PRGS scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. PRGS’s +20.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -25.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Progress Software Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PRGS?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($37.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $89.65 +141.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.72 -52.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $45.01 +21.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $59.36 +59.6%
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What Is PRGS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $14.21 to $89.65

CirclFi's 11 active models place Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) between $14.21 and $89.65 per share, a spread of 168% of the median. The median of that range — $44.78 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PRGS, against a current price of $37.20.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Bayesian DCF
$14.21median $44.78$89.65
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$14.21
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$89.65
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PRGS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PRGS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Progress Software Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $44.78, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $37.20. With a median implied return of +20.4% across a split 6–4 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +202.8% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +141.0% (fair value: $89.65), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -61.8% ($14.21). The spread between these extremes — +202.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PRGS?

11 of 13 models are currently active for PRGS. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PRGS is $44.78 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $89.65 on its own, implying +141.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PRGS Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 187 Software - Infrastructure stocks, PRGS ranks #47 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places PRGS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

The Software - Infrastructure sector introduces analytical considerations specific to software business businesses. For Progress Software Corporation, metrics like annual recurring revenue (ARR) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is PRGS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PRGS a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Progress Software Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Progress Software Corporation scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +202.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PRGS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PRGS's 11 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Progress Software Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

CCSIConsensus Cloud Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.1DBXDropbox, Inc.QOC 8.1FOURShift4 Payments, Inc.QOC 8.1WEXWEX Inc.QOC 8.1CALXCalix, Inc.QOC 8.1ZSZscaler, Inc.QOC 8.0DVLTDatavault AI Inc.QOC 5.9DTSSDatasea Intelligent Technology Ltd.QOC 5.1TAOPTaoping Inc.QOC 1.8FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: CCSI · DBX · FOUR · WEX · CALX · ZS · DVLT · DTSS · TAOP · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PRGS?

7 companies across all industries closest to PRGS’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

CSGPCoStar Group, Inc.QOC 8.1WNCWabash National CorporationQOC 8.1DHTDHT Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1AMAntero Midstream CorporationQOC 8.1RNSTRenasant CorporationQOC 8.1BBYBest Buy Co., Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CSGP · WNC · DHT · AM · RNST · BBY · NVDA

Where Does PRGS Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

PRGS is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Progress Software Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Progress Software Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)'s intrinsic value at $44.78 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $14.21 to $89.65. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $89.65 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PRGS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $37.20, 6 of 11 active models suggest PRGS may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $44.78, 20.4% above the current price of $37.20 — a consensus view that PRGS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Progress Software Corporation's business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for PRGS?

Progress Software Corporation's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PRGS?

CirclFi analyzes PRGS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PRGS?

Of the 11 models currently active on PRGS, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $89.65 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $14.21. CirclFi's published fair value for PRGS is the median of that range, $44.78, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 168% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PRGS a value trap in 2026?

Progress Software Corporation's Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) has a median fair value of $44.78 — 20.4% above the current price of $37.20 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PRGS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PRGS valuation
  • Financial statements: Progress Software Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000876167) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PRGS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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