Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Fair Value 2026

ARES · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (51/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ares Management Corporation (ARES) trades at $142.41, versus a $67.29 median fair value across its 3 active models — 52.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 51/100 (WARN). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARES
Price
$142.41
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
51/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Value Trap score of 51 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ares Management Corporation (ARES) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $67.29, 52.7% below the current price of $142.41. Estimates range from $50.79 to $115.85. ARES scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 51/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ARES’s -52.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ares Management Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARES?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($142.41)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $67.29 -52.7%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $115.85 -18.6%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $50.79 -64.3%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is ARES's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $50.79 to $115.85

CirclFi's 3 active models place Ares Management Corporation (ARES) between $50.79 and $115.85 per share, a spread of 97% of the median. The median of that range — $67.29 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ARES, against a current price of $142.41.

Low · FTNNHigh · Regime Cross
$50.79median $67.29$115.85
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$50.79
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$115.85
Model agreement0 bullish · 3 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ARES, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ares Management Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $67.29, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $142.41. With 3 out of 3 models flagging downside (-52.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $115.85 (-18.6%), versus FTNN at $50.79 (-64.3%). This +45.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ARES?

3 of 13 models are currently active for ARES. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ARES is $67.29 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARES Rank in Asset Management?

Among 186 Asset Management stocks, ARES ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places ARES in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Ares Management Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ARES a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARES a score of 51/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Ares Management Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Ares Management Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.1/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +45.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARES valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARES's 3 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ares Management Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

BAMBrookfield Asset Management Ltd.QOC 8.1NOAHNoah Holdings LimitedQOC 8.0TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc.QOC 8.1VCTRVictory Capital Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0WHGWestwood Holdings Group, Inc.QOC 8.2BLKBlackRock, Inc.QOC 7.9MGLDThe Marygold Companies, Inc.QOC 6.4BTXBlackRock Innovation and Growth Term TrustQOC 5.0OCCIOFS Credit Company, Inc.QOC 3.8HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BAM · NOAH · TROW · VCTR · WHG · BLK · MGLD · BTX · OCCI · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARES?

7 companies across all industries closest to ARES’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

BYRNByrna Technologies Inc.QOC 8.1DELLDell Technologies Inc.QOC 8.1LSCCLattice Semiconductor CorporationQOC 8.1DBXDropbox, Inc.QOC 8.1CIACitizens, Inc.QOC 8.1LSBKLake Shore Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BYRN · DELL · LSCC · DBX · CIA · LSBK · NVDA

Where Does ARES Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

ARES is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ares Management Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Ares Management Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ares Management Corporation (ARES)'s intrinsic value at $67.29 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $50.79 to $115.85. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARES overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $142.41, 0 of 3 active models suggest ARES may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $67.29, 52.7% below the current price of $142.41 — a consensus view that ARES is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ares Management Corporation's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for ARES?

Ares Management Corporation's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARES?

CirclFi analyzes ARES with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ARES?

Of the 3 models currently active on ARES, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $115.85 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $50.79. CirclFi's published fair value for ARES is the median of that range, $67.29, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 97% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ARES a value trap in 2026?

Ares Management Corporation's Value Trap score is 51/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ares Management Corporation (ARES) has a median fair value of $67.29 — 52.7% below the current price of $142.41 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARES/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARES valuation
  • Financial statements: Ares Management Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001176948) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARES as of ; valuations recomputed .