Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Fair Value 2026

ARCC · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (53/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) trades at $19.88, versus a $18.14 median fair value across its 8 active models — 8.7% below the current price. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 53/100 (WARN). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $11.54.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARCC
Price
$19.88
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
53/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +78.4% upside with 26% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 53 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $18.14, within 8.7% of the current price of $19.88. Estimates range from $10.86 to $35.47. ARCC scores 5.9/10 on fundamental quality and 53/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ARCC’s -8.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ares Capital Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARCC?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $11.54 -42.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $18.33 -7.8%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $35.47 +78.4%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $20.22 +1.7%
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What Is ARCC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $10.86 to $35.47

CirclFi's 8 active models place Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) between $10.86 and $35.47 per share, a spread of 136% of the median. The median of that range — $18.14 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ARCC, against a current price of $19.88.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$10.86median $18.14$35.47
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$10.86
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$35.47
Model agreement2 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ARCC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ARCC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Ares Capital Corporation at its current price of $19.88. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $18.14 (-8.7% vs price), with 5 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $35.47 (+78.4%), versus EROIC at $10.86 (-45.4%). This +123.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ARCC?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ARCC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ARCC is $18.14 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $11.54 on its own, implying -42.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARCC Rank in Asset Management?

Among 186 Asset Management stocks, ARCC ranks #82 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Ares Capital Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ARCC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARCC a score of 53/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Ares Capital Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Ares Capital Corporation is rated at 5.9/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +123.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARCC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARCC's 8 active models, average confidence is 20%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ares Capital Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

ASSTStrive, Inc.QOC 6.0BCICBCP Investment Corp.QOC 5.8BCSFBain Capital Specialty Finance, Inc.QOC 6.0CSWCCapital Southwest CorporationQOC 5.8OTFBlue Owl Technology Finance Corp.QOC 6.0EARNEllington Credit CompanyQOC 5.8MPVBarings Participation InvestorsQOC 4.8BUIBlackRock Utilities, Infrastructure & Power Opportunities TrustQOC 2.2HKHCHorizon Kinetics Holding CorporationQOC 7.3HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: ASST · BCIC · BCSF · CSWC · OTF · EARN · MPV · BUI · HKHC · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARCC?

7 companies across all industries closest to ARCC’s Quality of Company score of 5.9/10.

BETABETA Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.9AEVAAeva Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.9IPDNProfessional Diversity Network, Inc.QOC 5.9SYRASyra Health Corp.QOC 5.9SKILSkillsoft Corp.QOC 5.9PBSVPharma-Bio Serv, Inc.QOC 5.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BETA · AEVA · IPDN · SYRA · SKIL · PBSV · NVDA

Where Does ARCC Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

ARCC is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ares Capital Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Ares Capital Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)'s intrinsic value at $18.14 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $10.86 to $35.47. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $11.54 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARCC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.88, 3 of 8 active models suggest ARCC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $18.14, within 8.7% of the current price of $19.88 — a consensus view that ARCC is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ares Capital Corporation's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for ARCC?

Ares Capital Corporation's QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARCC?

CirclFi analyzes ARCC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ARCC?

Of the 8 models currently active on ARCC, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $35.47 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $10.86. CirclFi's published fair value for ARCC is the median of that range, $18.14, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 136% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ARCC a value trap in 2026?

Ares Capital Corporation's Value Trap score is 53/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) has a median fair value of $18.14 — within 8.7% of the current price of $19.88 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARCC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARCC valuation
  • Financial statements: Ares Capital Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001287750) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARCC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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