What Is Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ares Capital Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $25.10, suggesting a +34.6% average upside from the current price of $18.64. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $69.64 (+273.6%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $4.18 (-77.6%). This +351.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.
What Do the Models Say About ARCC?
12 of 13 models are currently active for ARCC. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ARCC's intrinsic value at $13.51, implying -27.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ARCC Rank in Asset Management?
Among 22 Asset Management stocks, ARCC ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.
Ares Capital Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is ARCC a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARCC a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Ares Capital Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Ares Capital Corporation is rated at 5.6/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +351.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ARCC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ARCC's 12 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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