NCDL (NCDL) Fair Value 2026

NCDL · — ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, NCDL (NCDL) trades at $12.78, approximately 63% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $34.23. QOC: 5.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NCDL
Price
$12.78
Quality Score
5.3/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +168.0% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is NCDL (NCDL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, NCDL (NCDL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $21.57, 68.9% above the current price of $12.78. Estimates range from $0.46 to $34.53. NCDL scores 5.3/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NCDL Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.78)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $34.23 +168.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $25.85 +102.3%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $0.46 -96.4%
RCMH-DCF
Medium Conviction
 $1.19 -90.7%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 5 additional models including EROIC Spread, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 9 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is NCDL (NCDL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NCDL's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $18.55. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $12.78 (implied upside of +45.2%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 6 of 9 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +170.3% (fair value: $34.53), while First Chicago is the most conservative at -96.4% ($0.46). The spread between these extremes — +266.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NCDL?

9 of 13 models are currently active for NCDL. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NCDL's intrinsic value at $34.23, implying +168.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NCDL Rank in —?

NCDL operates in the — sector. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

NCDL operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NCDL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NCDL a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for NCDL. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, NCDL is rated at 5.3/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +266.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NCDL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NCDL's 9 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NCDL Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar — Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related — stocks with 13-model coverage

PSECProspect Capital CorporationQOC 8.4SCMStellus Capital Investment CorpQOC 7.8FDUSFidus Investment CorporationQOC 7.6HTGCHercules Capital, Inc.QOC 7.6GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 7.4TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC QOC 7.3OXSQOxford Square Capital Corp.QOC 7.2GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc.QOC 7.2

Read investment analysis: PSEC · SCM · FDUS · HTGC · GLAD

Frequently Asked Questions About NCDL

What is NCDL's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, NCDL (NCDL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $34.23. The Quality of Company score is 5.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NCDL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.78, 6 of 9 active models suggest NCDL may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $21.57, 68.9% above the current price of $12.78 — a consensus view that NCDL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NCDL's business model in —.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.3 mean for NCDL?

NCDL's QOC of 5.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NCDL?

CirclFi analyzes NCDL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NCDL a value trap in 2026?

NCDL's Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, NCDL (NCDL) has a median fair value of $21.57 — 68.9% above the current price of $12.78 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NCDL/ · Methodology

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 9 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on NCDL.

Unlock All 9 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access