Burford Capital Limited (BUR) Fair Value 2026

BUR · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (54/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Burford Capital Limited (BUR) trades at $4.32, versus a $4.53 median fair value across its 5 active models — 4.8% above the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 54/100 (WARN). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BUR
Price
$4.32
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
54/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +36.6% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 54 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Burford Capital Limited (BUR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Burford Capital Limited (BUR) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $4.53, within 4.8% of the current price of $4.32. Estimates range from $1.94 to $8.73. BUR scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 54/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BUR’s +4.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Burford Capital Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BUR?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.32)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.90 +36.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.53 +4.8%
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What Is BUR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $1.94 to $8.73

CirclFi's 5 active models place Burford Capital Limited (BUR) between $1.94 and $8.73 per share, a spread of 150% of the median. The median of that range — $4.53 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BUR, against a current price of $4.32.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$1.94median $4.53$8.73
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$1.94
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$8.73
Model agreement2 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BUR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BUR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Burford Capital Limited (BUR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Burford Capital Limited presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $4.32. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $4.53 (+4.8% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 2 bullish models and 2 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $8.73 (+102.2%), versus Markov DDM at $1.94 (-55.0%). This +157.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BUR?

5 of 13 models are currently active for BUR. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BUR is $4.53 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BUR Rank in Asset Management?

Among 186 Asset Management stocks, BUR ranks #53 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Burford Capital Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BUR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BUR a score of 54/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Burford Capital Limited. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Burford Capital Limited's fundamental quality profile registers 6.7/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +157.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BUR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BUR's 5 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Burford Capital Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

OCSLOaktree Specialty Lending CorporationQOC 6.8SCMStellus Capital Investment CorporationQOC 6.7VINPVinci Compass Investments Ltd.QOC 6.8NCDLNuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.QOC 6.6OBDCBlue Owl Capital CorporationQOC 6.9BBDCBarings BDC, Inc.QOC 6.6GLUThe Gabelli Global Utility & Income TrustQOC 5.2GDVThe Gabelli Dividend & Income TrustQOC 4.6APOApollo Global Management, Inc.QOC 8.8HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: OCSL · SCM · VINP · NCDL · OBDC · BBDC · GLU · GDV · APO · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BUR?

7 companies across all industries closest to BUR’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

SMASmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.QOC 6.8QBTSD-Wave Quantum Inc.QOC 6.7LCTCLifeloc Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.8FGBIFirst Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.QOC 6.7INSGInseego Corp.QOC 6.8XBIOXenetic Biosciences, Inc.QOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SMA · QBTS · LCTC · FGBI · INSG · XBIO · NVDA

Where Does BUR Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

BUR is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Burford Capital Limited’s Valuation?

What is Burford Capital Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Burford Capital Limited (BUR)'s intrinsic value at $4.53 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.94 to $8.73. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BUR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.32, 3 of 5 active models suggest BUR may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $4.53, within 4.8% of the current price of $4.32 — a consensus view that BUR is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Burford Capital Limited's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for BUR?

Burford Capital Limited's QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BUR?

CirclFi analyzes BUR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BUR?

Of the 5 models currently active on BUR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $8.73 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $1.94. CirclFi's published fair value for BUR is the median of that range, $4.53, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 150% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BUR a value trap in 2026?

Burford Capital Limited's Value Trap score is 54/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Burford Capital Limited (BUR) has a median fair value of $4.53 — within 4.8% of the current price of $4.32 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BUR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BUR valuation
  • Financial statements: Burford Capital Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001714174) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BUR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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