Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC) Fair Value 2026

MEC · Metal Fabrication ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC) trades at $20.34, versus a $18.59 median fair value across its 8 active models — 8.6% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $11.27.

Key Facts

Ticker
MEC
Price
$20.34
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +93.5% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $18.59, within 8.6% of the current price of $20.34. Estimates range from $11.27 to $39.37. MEC scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MEC’s -8.6% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MEC?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.34)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.27 -44.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $18.31 -10.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $39.37 +93.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.23 -25.1%
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What Is MEC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $11.27 to $39.37

CirclFi's 8 active models place Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC) between $11.27 and $39.37 per share, a spread of 151% of the median. The median of that range — $18.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MEC, against a current price of $20.34.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$11.27median $18.59$39.37
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$11.27
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$39.37
Model agreement2 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MEC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MEC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. at its current price of $20.34. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $18.59 (-8.6% vs price), with 5 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $39.37 (+93.5%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $11.27 (-44.6%). This +138.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MEC?

8 of 13 models are currently active for MEC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MEC is $18.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $11.27 on its own, implying -44.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MEC Rank in Metal Fabrication?

Among 19 Metal Fabrication stocks, MEC ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Metal Fabrication space, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. competes in an environment where working capital efficiency often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MEC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MEC a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.6/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +138.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MEC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MEC's 8 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Metal Fabrication Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Metal Fabrication stocks with 13-model coverage

RYZRyerson Holding CorporationQOC 7.3TRSGTungray Technologies Inc.QOC 6.4TGTredegar CorporationQOC 7.3TPCSTechPrecision CorporationQOC 6.0ESABESAB CorporationQOC 7.6GPGIGPGI, Inc.QOC 5.9LQMTLiquidmetal Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.7MLIMueller Industries, Inc.QOC 9.4WORWorthington Enterprises, Inc.QOC 7.9CRSCarpenter Technology CorporationQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: RYZ · TRSG · TG · TPCS · ESAB · GPGI · LQMT · MLI · WOR · CRS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MEC?

7 companies across all industries closest to MEC’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

RIOTRiot Platforms, Inc.QOC 6.6NSYSNortech Systems IncorporatedQOC 6.6FETForum Energy Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.6STLAStellantis N.V.QOC 6.6MLPMaui Land & Pineapple Company, Inc.QOC 6.6MYOMyomo, Inc.QOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RIOT · NSYS · FET · STLA · MLP · MYO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC)'s intrinsic value at $18.59 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.27 to $39.37. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $11.27 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MEC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.34, 3 of 8 active models suggest MEC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $18.59, within 8.6% of the current price of $20.34 — a consensus view that MEC is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.'s business model in Metal Fabrication.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for MEC?

Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MEC?

CirclFi analyzes MEC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MEC?

Of the 8 models currently active on MEC, First Chicago is the most bullish at $39.37 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $11.27. CirclFi's published fair value for MEC is the median of that range, $18.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 151% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MEC a value trap in 2026?

Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC) has a median fair value of $18.59 — within 8.6% of the current price of $20.34 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MEC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MEC valuation
  • Financial statements: Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001766368) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MEC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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