Mayville Engineering Company, I (MEC) Fair Value 2026

MEC · Metal Forgings & Stampings ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Mayville Engineering Company, I (MEC) trades at $32.79, approximately 29% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $25.33. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MEC
Price
$32.79
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($32.79)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$25.33 -22.7%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$0.90 -97.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$18.29 -44.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$10.25 -68.7%

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What Is Mayville Engineering Company, I (MEC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Mayville Engineering Company, I at its current price of $32.79. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $18.87 (-42.4% average return), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $38.17 (+16.4%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $0.90 (-97.2%). This +113.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Mayville Engineering Company, I's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MEC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MEC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MEC's intrinsic value at $25.33, implying -22.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MEC Rank in Metal Forgings & Stampings?

Among 4 Metal Forgings & Stampings stocks, MEC ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Metal Forgings & Stampings space, Mayville Engineering Company, I competes in an environment where working capital efficiency often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MEC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MEC a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Mayville Engineering Company, I. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Mayville Engineering Company, I's fundamental quality profile registers 7.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +113.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MEC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MEC's 11 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mayville Engineering Company, I Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Metal Forgings & Stampings Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

3 related Metal Forgings & Stampings stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Mayville Engineering Company, I

What is Mayville Engineering Company, I's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Mayville Engineering Company, I (MEC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $25.33. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MEC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $32.79, 3 of 11 active models suggest MEC may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mayville Engineering Company, I's business model in Metal Forgings & Stampings.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for MEC?

Mayville Engineering Company, I's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MEC?

CirclFi analyzes MEC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MEC a value trap in 2026?

Mayville Engineering Company, I's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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