Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) Fair Value 2026

MLI · Metal Fabrication ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) trades at $64.18, versus a $61.86 median fair value across its 11 active models — 3.6% below the current price. QOC: 9.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $63.35.

Key Facts

Ticker
MLI
Price
$64.18
Quality Score
9.4/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +133.4% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $61.86, within 3.6% of the current price of $64.18. Estimates range from $27.40 to $149.79. MLI scores 9.4/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MLI’s -3.6% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mueller Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MLI?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($64.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $63.35 -1.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.84 -45.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $56.21 -12.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $149.79 +133.4%
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What Is MLI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $27.40 to $149.79

CirclFi's 11 active models place Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) between $27.40 and $149.79 per share, a spread of 198% of the median. The median of that range — $61.86 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MLI, against a current price of $64.18.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$27.40median $61.86$149.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$27.40
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$149.79
Model agreement3 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MLI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MLI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mueller Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $61.86, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $64.18. With a median implied return of -3.6% across a split 3–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +190.7% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +133.4% (fair value: $149.79), while EROIC is the most conservative at -57.3% ($27.40). The spread between these extremes — +190.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MLI?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MLI. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MLI is $61.86 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $63.35 on its own, implying -1.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MLI Rank in Metal Fabrication?

Among 19 Metal Fabrication stocks, MLI ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places MLI in the top tier.

Mueller Industries, Inc.'s positioning within the Metal Fabrication segment means that margin expansion trajectory plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including aftermarket and services growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MLI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MLI a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Mueller Industries, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mueller Industries, Inc. scores 9.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +190.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MLI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MLI's 11 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mueller Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Metal Fabrication Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Metal Fabrication stocks with 13-model coverage

MTENMingteng International Corporation Inc.QOC 2.7CRSCarpenter Technology CorporationQOC 9.1HIHOHighway Holdings LimitedQOC 3.0ATIATI Inc.QOC 8.7OLOXOlenox Industries Inc.QOC 3.9IIINInsteel Industries Inc.QOC 8.3PRLBProto Labs, Inc.QOC 7.9RYZRyerson Holding CorporationQOC 7.3LQMTLiquidmetal Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.7

Read investment analysis: MTEN · CRS · HIHO · ATI · OLOX · IIIN · PRLB · RYZ · LQMT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MLI?

7 companies across all industries closest to MLI’s Quality of Company score of 9.4/10.

EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4CLSCelestica Inc.QOC 9.4NOWServiceNow, Inc.QOC 9.4PEGAPegasystems Inc.QOC 9.4IESCIES Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.4AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EPAC · CLS · NOW · PEGA · IESC · AMPH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mueller Industries, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Mueller Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI)'s intrinsic value at $61.86 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $27.40 to $149.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $63.35 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MLI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $64.18, 3 of 11 active models suggest MLI may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $61.86, within 3.6% of the current price of $64.18 — a consensus view that MLI is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mueller Industries, Inc.'s business model in Metal Fabrication.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.4 mean for MLI?

Mueller Industries, Inc.'s QOC of 9.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MLI?

CirclFi analyzes MLI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MLI?

Of the 11 models currently active on MLI, First Chicago is the most bullish at $149.79 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $27.40. CirclFi's published fair value for MLI is the median of that range, $61.86, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 198% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MLI a value trap in 2026?

Mueller Industries, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) has a median fair value of $61.86 — within 3.6% of the current price of $64.18 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MLI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MLI valuation
  • Financial statements: Mueller Industries, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000089439) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MLI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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