Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) Fair Value 2026

PEGA · Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) trades at $31.28, approximately 266% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $8.56. QOC: 4.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PEGA
Price
$31.28
Quality Score
4.1/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.1/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $13.28, 57.6% below the current price of $31.28. Estimates range from $1.51 to $30.30. PEGA scores 4.1/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Pegasystems Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($31.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $8.56 -72.6%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $16.93 -45.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $11.64 -62.8%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $16.44 -47.4%

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What Is Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Pegasystems Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.96, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $31.28. With 12 out of 13 models flagging downside (-55.4% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $30.30 (-3.1%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $1.51 (-95.2%). This +92.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Pegasystems Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PEGA?

13 of 13 models are currently active for PEGA. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates PEGA's intrinsic value at $8.56, implying -72.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PEGA Rank in Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation?

Among 66 Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation stocks, PEGA ranks #53 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.1 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation Stocks →

Pegasystems Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is PEGA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PEGA a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Pegasystems Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Pegasystems Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 4.1/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +92.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PEGA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PEGA's 13 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Pegasystems Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation stocks with 13-model coverage

INODInnodata Inc.QOC 10.0IBEXIBEX LimitedQOC 10.0UPWKUpwork Inc.QOC 9.9CARGCarGurus, Inc.QOC 9.5TRAKReposiTrak, Inc.QOC 9.4RAMPLiveRamp Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.2RDDTReddit, Inc.QOC 9.0OOMAOoma, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: INOD · IBEX · UPWK · CARG · TRAK

See all Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Pegasystems Inc.

What is Pegasystems Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $8.56. The Quality of Company score is 4.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PEGA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $31.28, 0 of 13 active models suggest PEGA may be undervalued, while 13 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $13.28, 57.6% below the current price of $31.28 — a consensus view that PEGA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Pegasystems Inc.'s business model in Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.1 mean for PEGA?

Pegasystems Inc.'s QOC of 4.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PEGA?

CirclFi analyzes PEGA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PEGA a value trap in 2026?

Pegasystems Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) has a median fair value of $13.28 — 57.6% below the current price of $31.28 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PEGA/ · Methodology

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