Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) Fair Value 2026

CRS · Metal Fabrication ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) trades at $490.58, versus a $129.93 median fair value across its 10 active models — 73.5% below the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $121.52.

Key Facts

Ticker
CRS
Price
$490.58
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $129.93, 73.5% below the current price of $490.58. Estimates range from $15.59 to $421.79. CRS scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CRS’s -73.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Carpenter Technology Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CRS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($490.58)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $121.52 -75.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.59 -96.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $138.33 -71.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $421.79 -14.0%
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What Is CRS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $15.59 to $421.79

CirclFi's 10 active models place Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) between $15.59 and $421.79 per share, a spread of 313% of the median. The median of that range — $129.93 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CRS, against a current price of $490.58.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$15.59median $129.93$421.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$15.59
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$421.79
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CRS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CRS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Carpenter Technology Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $129.93. Trading at its current price of $490.58, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -73.5%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at -14.0% (fair value: $421.79), while EPV is the most conservative at -96.8% ($15.59). The spread between these extremes — +82.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CRS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for CRS. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CRS is $129.93 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $121.52 on its own, implying -75.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CRS Rank in Metal Fabrication?

Among 19 Metal Fabrication stocks, CRS ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places CRS in the top tier.

The Metal Fabrication sector introduces analytical considerations specific to manufacturing company businesses. For Carpenter Technology Corporation, metrics like working capital efficiency provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is CRS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CRS a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Carpenter Technology Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Carpenter Technology Corporation earns a quality score of 9.1/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +82.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CRS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CRS's 10 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Carpenter Technology Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Metal Fabrication Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Metal Fabrication stocks with 13-model coverage

MLIMueller Industries, Inc.QOC 9.4ATIATI Inc.QOC 8.7MTENMingteng International Corporation Inc.QOC 2.7IIINInsteel Industries Inc.QOC 8.3HIHOHighway Holdings LimitedQOC 3.0PRLBProto Labs, Inc.QOC 7.9WORWorthington Enterprises, Inc.QOC 7.9MECMayville Engineering Company, Inc.QOC 6.6APAmpco-Pittsburgh CorporationQOC 5.4

Read investment analysis: MLI · ATI · MTEN · IIIN · HIHO · PRLB · WOR · MEC · AP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CRS?

7 companies across all industries closest to CRS’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc.QOC 9.1ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1NDSNNordson CorporationQOC 9.1CRVLCorVel CorporationQOC 9.1OPXSOptex Systems Holdings, IncQOC 9.1BSYBentley Systems, IncorporatedQOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TRV · ESQ · NDSN · CRVL · OPXS · BSY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Carpenter Technology Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Carpenter Technology Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)'s intrinsic value at $129.93 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.59 to $421.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $121.52 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CRS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $490.58, 0 of 10 active models suggest CRS may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $129.93, 73.5% below the current price of $490.58 — a consensus view that CRS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Carpenter Technology Corporation's business model in Metal Fabrication.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for CRS?

Carpenter Technology Corporation's QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CRS?

CirclFi analyzes CRS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CRS?

Of the 10 models currently active on CRS, First Chicago is the most bullish at $421.79 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $15.59. CirclFi's published fair value for CRS is the median of that range, $129.93, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 313% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CRS a value trap in 2026?

Carpenter Technology Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) has a median fair value of $129.93 — 73.5% below the current price of $490.58 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CRS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CRS valuation
  • Financial statements: Carpenter Technology Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000017843) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CRS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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