Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) Fair Value 2026

AP · Metal Fabrication ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) trades at $8.15. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AP
Price
$8.15
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +0.9% upside with 27% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $1.84, 77.4% below the current price of $8.15. Estimates range from $0.20 to $10.39. AP scores 5.9/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$8.22 +0.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$2.54 -68.9%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$2.57 -68.5%
ML-RIV
High Conviction
$0.42 -94.8%

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What Is Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation at its current price of $8.15. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $3.45 (-57.6% average return), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +27.5% (fair value: $10.39), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -97.5% ($0.20). The spread between these extremes — +125.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AP?

10 of 13 models are currently active for AP. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AP Rank in Metal Fabrication?

Among 2 Metal Fabrication stocks, AP ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

As a manufacturing company, Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation operates in a sector where order backlog depth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AP should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AP a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 5.9/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +125.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AP's 10 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Metal Fabrication Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Metal Fabrication stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation

What is Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.15, 2 of 10 active models suggest AP may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $1.84, 77.4% below the current price of $8.15 — a consensus view that AP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation's business model in Metal Fabrication.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for AP?

Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation's QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AP?

CirclFi analyzes AP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AP a value trap in 2026?

Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) has a median fair value of $1.84 — 77.4% below the current price of $8.15 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AP/ · Methodology

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