Tredegar Corporation (TG) Fair Value 2026

TG · Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Tredegar Corporation (TG) trades at $7.42, approximately 7% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $6.96. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TG
Price
$7.42
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +365.3% upside with 79% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$6.96 -6.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$34.53 +365.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$13.34 +79.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$4.40 -40.7%

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What Is Tredegar Corporation (TG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tredegar Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $11.40, suggesting a +53.6% average upside from the current price of $7.42. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 5 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: EPV targets $34.53 (+365.3%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $2.38 (-67.9%). This +433.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TG?

12 of 13 models are currently active for TG. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TG's intrinsic value at $6.96, implying -6.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TG Rank in Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals?

Among 5 Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals stocks, TG ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

As a industrial enterprise, Tredegar Corporation operates in a sector where book-to-bill ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TG should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TG a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Tredegar Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Tredegar Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 6.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +433.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TG's 12 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tredegar Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

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Frequently Asked Questions About Tredegar Corporation

What is Tredegar Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Tredegar Corporation (TG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $6.96. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.42, 7 of 12 active models suggest TG may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tredegar Corporation's business model in Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for TG?

Tredegar Corporation's QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TG?

CirclFi analyzes TG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TG a value trap in 2026?

Tredegar Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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