What Is Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $32.79, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $98.09. With 11 out of 13 models flagging downside (-66.6% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $105.33 (+7.4%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $0.44 (-99.6%). This +106.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About CWST?
13 of 13 models are currently active for CWST. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CWST's intrinsic value at $18.07, implying -81.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does CWST Rank in Refuse Systems?
Among 9 Refuse Systems stocks, CWST ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places CWST in the top tier.
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is CWST a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CWST a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Casella Waste Systems, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is rated at 8.2/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +106.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every CWST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across CWST's 13 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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