Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) Fair Value 2026

CWST · Refuse Systems ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) trades at $93.00, versus a $7.84 median fair value across its 6 active models — 91.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $22.04.

Key Facts

Ticker
CWST
Price
$93.00
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $7.84, 91.6% below the current price of $93.00. Estimates range from $1.64 to $34.63. CWST scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CWST’s -91.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CWST?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($93.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.04 -76.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.16 -89.1%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $2.95 -96.8%
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What Is CWST's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $1.64 to $34.63

CirclFi's 6 active models place Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) between $1.64 and $34.63 per share, a spread of 421% of the median. The median of that range — $7.84 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CWST, against a current price of $93.00.

Low · EROICHigh · PWERM
$1.64median $7.84$34.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$1.64
Most bullish modelPWERM$34.63
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CWST. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CWST, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.84, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $93.00. With 6 out of 6 models flagging downside (-91.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $34.63 (-62.8%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $1.64 (-98.2%). This +35.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CWST?

6 of 13 models are currently active for CWST. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CWST is $7.84 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $22.04 on its own, implying -76.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CWST Rank in Refuse Systems?

Among 2 Refuse Systems stocks, CWST ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CWST a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CWST a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Casella Waste Systems, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is rated at 7.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +35.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CWST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CWST's 6 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Refuse Systems Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Refuse Systems stocks with 13-model coverage

DBHLDeep Isolation Nuclear, Inc.QOC 5.5

Read investment analysis: DBHL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CWST?

7 companies across all industries closest to CWST’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

SGHTSight Sciences, Inc.QOC 7.3AORTArtivion, Inc.QOC 7.3CWGLCrimson Wine Group, Ltd.QOC 7.3FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc.QOC 7.3LGCLLucas GC LimitedQOC 7.3BMRCBank of Marin BancorpQOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SGHT · AORT · CWGL · FBIN · LGCL · BMRC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Casella Waste Systems, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST)'s intrinsic value at $7.84 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.64 to $34.63. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $22.04 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CWST overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $93.00, 0 of 6 active models suggest CWST may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $7.84, 91.6% below the current price of $93.00 — a consensus view that CWST is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s business model in Refuse Systems.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for CWST?

Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CWST?

CirclFi analyzes CWST with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CWST?

Of the 6 models currently active on CWST, PWERM is the most bullish at $34.63 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $1.64. CirclFi's published fair value for CWST is the median of that range, $7.84, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 421% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CWST a value trap in 2026?

Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) has a median fair value of $7.84 — 91.6% below the current price of $93.00 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CWST/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CWST valuation
  • Financial statements: Casella Waste Systems, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000911177) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CWST as of ; valuations recomputed .

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