Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Fair Value 2026

WCN · Waste Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) trades at $165.68, versus a $87.84 median fair value across its 10 active models — 47.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $93.51.

Key Facts

Ticker
WCN
Price
$165.68
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $87.84, 47.0% below the current price of $165.68. Estimates range from $26.18 to $237.63. WCN scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. WCN’s -47.0% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Waste Connections, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give WCN?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($165.68)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $93.51 -43.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.18 -84.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $82.16 -50.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.38 -79.3%
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What Is WCN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $26.18 to $237.63

CirclFi's 10 active models place Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) between $26.18 and $237.63 per share, a spread of 241% of the median. The median of that range — $87.84 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for WCN, against a current price of $165.68.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$26.18median $87.84$237.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$26.18
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$237.63
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for WCN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on WCN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Waste Connections, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $87.84. Trading at its current price of $165.68, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -47.0%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +43.4% (fair value: $237.63), while EPV is the most conservative at -84.2% ($26.18). The spread between these extremes — +127.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About WCN?

10 of 13 models are currently active for WCN. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for WCN is $87.84 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $93.51 on its own, implying -43.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WCN Rank in Waste Management?

Among 24 Waste Management stocks, WCN ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places WCN in the top tier.

Waste Connections, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is WCN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WCN a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Waste Connections, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Waste Connections, Inc. scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +127.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WCN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WCN's 10 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Waste Connections, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Waste Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Waste Management stocks with 13-model coverage

CLHClean Harbors, Inc.QOC 8.9RSGRepublic Services, Inc.QOC 8.6DXSTDecent Holding Inc.QOC 3.0AWXAvalon Holdings CorporationQOC 8.4SGLASino Green Land CorporationQOC 4.2WMWaste Management, Inc.QOC 8.0PESIPerma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc.QOC 6.6ABATAmerican Battery Technology CompanyQOC 5.6GWAVGreenwave Technology Solutions, Inc.QOC 4.9

Read investment analysis: CLH · RSG · DXST · AWX · SGLA · WM · PESI · ABAT · GWAV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to WCN?

7 companies across all industries closest to WCN’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

MNSTMonster Beverage CorporationQOC 8.7DOVDover CorporationQOC 8.7TELTE Connectivity plcQOC 8.7SEZLSezzle Inc.QOC 8.7TCBKTriCo BancsharesQOC 8.7HSTMHealthStream, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MNST · DOV · TEL · SEZL · TCBK · HSTM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Waste Connections, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Waste Connections, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN)'s intrinsic value at $87.84 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $26.18 to $237.63. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $93.51 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WCN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $165.68, 1 of 10 active models suggest WCN may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $87.84, 47.0% below the current price of $165.68 — a consensus view that WCN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Waste Connections, Inc.'s business model in Waste Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for WCN?

Waste Connections, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WCN?

CirclFi analyzes WCN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on WCN?

Of the 10 models currently active on WCN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $237.63 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $26.18. CirclFi's published fair value for WCN is the median of that range, $87.84, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 241% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is WCN a value trap in 2026?

Waste Connections, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) has a median fair value of $87.84 — 47.0% below the current price of $165.68 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/WCN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this WCN valuation
  • Financial statements: Waste Connections, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001318220) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for WCN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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