What Is Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Waste Connections, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $107.20. Trading at its current price of $171.20, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -37.4%. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +2.5% (fair value: $175.55), while EPV is the most conservative at -98.4% ($2.72). The spread between these extremes — +101.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About WCN?
12 of 13 models are currently active for WCN. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates WCN's intrinsic value at $121.20, implying -29.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does WCN Rank in Refuse Systems?
Among 9 Refuse Systems stocks, WCN ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.
Waste Connections, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is WCN a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WCN a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Waste Connections, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Waste Connections, Inc. scores 7.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +101.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every WCN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across WCN's 12 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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