Watsco, Inc. (WSO) Fair Value 2026

WSO · Industrial Distribution ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Watsco, Inc. (WSO) trades at $313.05, versus a $225.69 median fair value across its 10 active models — 27.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $272.10.

Key Facts

Ticker
WSO
Price
$313.05
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Watsco, Inc. (WSO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Watsco, Inc. (WSO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $225.69, 27.9% below the current price of $313.05. Estimates range from $96.67 to $348.86. WSO scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. WSO’s -27.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Industrial Distribution sector median is -33.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Watsco, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give WSO?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($313.05)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $272.10 -13.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $133.92 -57.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $207.29 -33.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $96.67 -69.1%
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What Is WSO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $96.67 to $348.86

CirclFi's 10 active models place Watsco, Inc. (WSO) between $96.67 and $348.86 per share, a spread of 112% of the median. The median of that range — $225.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for WSO, against a current price of $313.05.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$96.67median $225.69$348.86
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$96.67
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$348.86
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for WSO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on WSO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Watsco, Inc. (WSO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Watsco, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $225.69, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $313.05. With 8 out of 10 models flagging downside (-27.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $348.86 (+11.4%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $96.67 (-69.1%). This +80.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Watsco, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About WSO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for WSO. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for WSO is $225.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $272.10 on its own, implying -13.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WSO Rank in Industrial Distribution?

Among 23 Industrial Distribution stocks, WSO ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places WSO in the top tier.

Within the Industrial Distribution space, Watsco, Inc. competes in an environment where capacity utilization rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is WSO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WSO a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Watsco, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Watsco, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +80.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WSO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WSO's 10 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Watsco, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Industrial Distribution Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Industrial Distribution stocks with 13-model coverage

FASTFastenal CompanyQOC 8.9GICGlobal Industrial CompanyQOC 8.4CNMCore & Main, Inc.QOC 8.9WCCWESCO International, Inc.QOC 8.3AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1DXPEDXP Enterprises, Inc.QOC 8.3POOLPool CorporationQOC 8.1BXCBlueLinx Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4QXOQXO, Inc.QOC 5.9GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: FAST · GIC · CNM · WCC · AIT · DXPE · POOL · BXC · QXO · GWW

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to WSO?

7 companies across all industries closest to WSO’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

MCYMercury General CorporationQOC 8.7DYDycom Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7MMSIMerit Medical Systems, Inc.QOC 8.7WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.QOC 8.7MDXGMiMedx Group, Inc.QOC 8.7HUBSHubSpot, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MCY · DY · MMSI · WST · MDXG · HUBS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Watsco, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Watsco, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Watsco, Inc. (WSO)'s intrinsic value at $225.69 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $96.67 to $348.86. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $272.10 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WSO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $313.05, 2 of 10 active models suggest WSO may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $225.69, 27.9% below the current price of $313.05 — a consensus view that WSO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Watsco, Inc.'s business model in Industrial Distribution.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for WSO?

Watsco, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WSO?

CirclFi analyzes WSO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on WSO?

Of the 10 models currently active on WSO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $348.86 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $96.67. CirclFi's published fair value for WSO is the median of that range, $225.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 112% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is WSO a value trap in 2026?

Watsco, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Watsco, Inc. (WSO) has a median fair value of $225.69 — 27.9% below the current price of $313.05 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/WSO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this WSO valuation
  • Financial statements: Watsco, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000105016) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for WSO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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