What Is Fastenal Company (FAST) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Fastenal Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $26.76. Trading at its current price of $47.05, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 12 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -43.1%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $86.08 (+83.0%), versus Dynamic NAV at $3.50 (-92.6%). This +175.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About FAST?
13 of 13 models are currently active for FAST. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates FAST's intrinsic value at $20.06, implying -57.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does FAST Rank in Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply?
Among 6 Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply stocks, FAST ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.7 places FAST in the top tier.
Fastenal Company's positioning within the Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply segment means that store traffic trends plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including geographic expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is FAST a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for FAST. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Fastenal Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Fastenal Company earns a quality score of 9.7/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +175.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every FAST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across FAST's 13 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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