H World Group Limited (HTHT) Fair Value 2026

HTHT · Lodging ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, H World Group Limited (HTHT) trades at $47.71, versus a $67.49 median fair value across its 11 active models — 41.5% above the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $178.22.

Key Facts

Ticker
HTHT
Price
$47.71
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +273.5% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is H World Group Limited (HTHT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, H World Group Limited (HTHT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $67.49, 41.5% above the current price of $47.71. Estimates range from $12.20 to $178.22. HTHT scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HTHT’s +41.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy H World Group Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HTHT?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($47.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $178.22 +273.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.20 -74.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $74.70 +56.6%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $95.60 +100.4%
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What Is HTHT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $12.20 to $178.22

CirclFi's 11 active models place H World Group Limited (HTHT) between $12.20 and $178.22 per share, a spread of 246% of the median. The median of that range — $67.49 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HTHT, against a current price of $47.71.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$12.20median $67.49$178.22
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$12.20
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$178.22
Model agreement7 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HTHT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HTHT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is H World Group Limited (HTHT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on H World Group Limited at $47.71. With an estimated intrinsic value of $67.49 and 7 of 11 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +41.5%. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $178.22 (+273.5%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $12.20 (-74.4%). This +348.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about H World Group Limited's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HTHT?

11 of 13 models are currently active for HTHT. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HTHT is $67.49 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $178.22 on its own, implying +273.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HTHT Rank in Lodging?

Among 12 Lodging stocks, HTHT ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places HTHT in the top tier.

H World Group Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HTHT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HTHT a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for H World Group Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, H World Group Limited earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +348.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HTHT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HTHT's 11 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy H World Group Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Lodging Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Lodging stocks with 13-model coverage

ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings LimitedQOC 9.7CHHChoice Hotels International, Inc.QOC 8.7HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.QOC 8.2WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.9MARMarriott International, Inc.QOC 7.8GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.QOC 7.2HHyatt Hotels CorporationQOC 6.6CVEOCiveo CorporationQOC 6.3PRSIPortsmouth Square, Inc.QOC 5.4INTGThe InterGroup CorporationQOC 5.4IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLCQOC 2.6

Read investment analysis: ATAT · CHH · HLT · WH · MAR · GHG · H · CVEO · PRSI · INTG · IHG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HTHT?

7 companies across all industries closest to HTHT’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

COSTCostco Wholesale CorporationQOC 8.9FTITechnipFMC plcQOC 8.9ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9SAPSAP SEQOC 8.9BXBlackstone Inc.QOC 8.9SYFSynchrony FinancialQOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: COST · FTI · ADUS · SAP · BX · SYF · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About H World Group Limited’s Valuation?

What is H World Group Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts H World Group Limited (HTHT)'s intrinsic value at $67.49 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.20 to $178.22. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $178.22 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HTHT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $47.71, 8 of 11 active models suggest HTHT may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $67.49, 41.5% above the current price of $47.71 — a consensus view that HTHT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits H World Group Limited's business model in Lodging.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for HTHT?

H World Group Limited's QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HTHT?

CirclFi analyzes HTHT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HTHT?

Of the 11 models currently active on HTHT, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $178.22 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $12.20. CirclFi's published fair value for HTHT is the median of that range, $67.49, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 246% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HTHT a value trap in 2026?

H World Group Limited's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, H World Group Limited (HTHT) has a median fair value of $67.49 — 41.5% above the current price of $47.71 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HTHT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HTHT valuation
  • Financial statements: H World Group Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001483994) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HTHT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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