Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Fair Value 2026

HLT · Lodging ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) trades at $325.68, versus a $127.91 median fair value across its 9 active models — 60.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $41.39.

Key Facts

Ticker
HLT
Price
$325.68
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $127.91, 60.7% below the current price of $325.68. Estimates range from $4.21 to $361.91. HLT scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HLT’s -60.7% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HLT?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($325.68)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $41.39 -87.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $127.91 -60.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $228.89 -29.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $168.66 -48.2%
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What Is HLT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $4.21 to $361.91

CirclFi's 9 active models place Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) between $4.21 and $361.91 per share, a spread of 280% of the median. The median of that range — $127.91 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HLT, against a current price of $325.68.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$4.21median $127.91$361.91
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$4.21
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$361.91
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HLT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HLT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $127.91. Trading at its current price of $325.68, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -60.7%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +11.1% (fair value: $361.91), while EROIC is the most conservative at -98.7% ($4.21). The spread between these extremes — +109.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About HLT?

9 of 13 models are currently active for HLT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HLT is $127.91 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $41.39 on its own, implying -87.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HLT Rank in Lodging?

Among 12 Lodging stocks, HLT ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places HLT in the top tier.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HLT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HLT a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. earns a quality score of 8.2/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +109.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HLT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HLT's 9 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Lodging Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Lodging stocks with 13-model coverage

ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings LimitedQOC 9.7HTHTH World Group LimitedQOC 8.9CHHChoice Hotels International, Inc.QOC 8.7WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.9MARMarriott International, Inc.QOC 7.8GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.QOC 7.2HHyatt Hotels CorporationQOC 6.6CVEOCiveo CorporationQOC 6.3PRSIPortsmouth Square, Inc.QOC 5.4INTGThe InterGroup CorporationQOC 5.4IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLCQOC 2.6

Read investment analysis: ATAT · HTHT · CHH · WH · MAR · GHG · H · CVEO · PRSI · INTG · IHG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HLT?

7 companies across all industries closest to HLT’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc.QOC 8.2STZConstellation Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2ANDEThe Andersons, Inc.QOC 8.2MDNCMedinotec Inc.QOC 8.2FMAOFarmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2NTICNorthern Technologies International CorporationQOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SFM · STZ · ANDE · MDNC · FMAO · NTIC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)'s intrinsic value at $127.91 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $4.21 to $361.91. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $41.39 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HLT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $325.68, 1 of 9 active models suggest HLT may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $127.91, 60.7% below the current price of $325.68 — a consensus view that HLT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s business model in Lodging.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for HLT?

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HLT?

CirclFi analyzes HLT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HLT?

Of the 9 models currently active on HLT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $361.91 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $4.21. CirclFi's published fair value for HLT is the median of that range, $127.91, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 280% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HLT a value trap in 2026?

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) has a median fair value of $127.91 — 60.7% below the current price of $325.68 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HLT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HLT valuation
  • Financial statements: Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001585689) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HLT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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