Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) Fair Value 2026

AUB · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) trades at $40.66, versus a $33.67 median fair value across its 5 active models — 17.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AUB
Price
$40.66
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $33.67, 17.2% below the current price of $40.66. Estimates range from $21.13 to $61.99. AUB scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AUB’s -17.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AUB?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $33.67 -17.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.13 -48.0%
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What Is AUB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $21.13 to $61.99

CirclFi's 5 active models place Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) between $21.13 and $61.99 per share, a spread of 121% of the median. The median of that range — $33.67 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AUB, against a current price of $40.66.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$21.13median $33.67$61.99
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$21.13
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$61.99
Model agreement2 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AUB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AUB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $33.67. Trading at $40.66, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -17.2%), as 3 of 5 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $61.99 (+52.5%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $21.13 (-48.0%). This +100.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AUB?

5 of 13 models are currently active for AUB. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AUB is $33.67 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AUB Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, AUB ranks #194 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation's positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that net interest margin (NIM) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fee income diversification — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AUB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AUB a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation scores 7.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +100.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AUB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AUB's 5 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

GSBCGreat Southern Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.9EBMTEagle Bancorp Montana, Inc.QOC 7.9ACNBACNB CorporationQOC 7.9FITBFifth Third BancorpQOC 7.9HBIAHills BancorporationQOC 7.9HNVRHanover Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.9TFSLTFS Financial CorporationQOC 7.3IBOCInternational Bancshares CorporationQOC 8.8RBKBRhinebeck Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: GSBC · EBMT · ACNB · FITB · HBIA · HNVR · TFSL · IBOC · RBKB · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AUB?

7 companies across all industries closest to AUB’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

HPQHP Inc.QOC 7.9NRPNatural Resource Partners L.P.QOC 7.9IMXIInternational Money Express, Inc.QOC 7.9CAHCardinal Health, Inc.QOC 7.9CLXThe Clorox CompanyQOC 7.9SEISolaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HPQ · NRP · IMXI · CAH · CLX · SEI · NVDA

Where Does AUB Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

AUB is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB)'s intrinsic value at $33.67 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $21.13 to $61.99. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AUB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.66, 2 of 5 active models suggest AUB may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $33.67, 17.2% below the current price of $40.66 — a consensus view that AUB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for AUB?

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AUB?

CirclFi analyzes AUB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AUB?

Of the 5 models currently active on AUB, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $61.99 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $21.13. CirclFi's published fair value for AUB is the median of that range, $33.67, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 121% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AUB a value trap in 2026?

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation's Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) has a median fair value of $33.67 — 17.2% below the current price of $40.66 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AUB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AUB valuation

Market data for AUB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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