Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) Fair Value 2026

MD · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) trades at $26.00, versus a $33.54 median fair value across its 9 active models — 29.0% above the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $40.68.

Key Facts

Ticker
MD
Price
$26.00
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +56.5% upside with 69% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $33.54, 29.0% above the current price of $26.00. Estimates range from $10.48 to $49.71. MD scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. MD’s +29.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -27.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MD?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($26.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $40.68 +56.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.48 -59.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $31.04 +19.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.78 -43.2%
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What Is MD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $10.48 to $49.71

CirclFi's 9 active models place Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) between $10.48 and $49.71 per share, a spread of 117% of the median. The median of that range — $33.54 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MD, against a current price of $26.00.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$10.48median $33.54$49.71
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$10.48
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$49.71
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $33.54. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $26.00 (implied upside of +29.0%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 6 of 9 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +91.2% (fair value: $49.71), while EPV is the most conservative at -59.7% ($10.48). The spread between these extremes — +150.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MD?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MD. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MD is $33.54 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $40.68 on its own, implying +56.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MD Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, MD ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MD a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +150.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MD's 9 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

HCAHCA Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.9PACSPACS Group, Inc.QOC 7.8USPHU.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.QOC 7.9HCSGHealthcare Services Group, Inc.QOC 7.7ARDTArdent Health, Inc.QOC 8.2BTMDbiote Corp.QOC 7.7AMNAMN Healthcare Services, Inc.QOC 6.7STLNStarling Oncology, Inc.QOC 5.7XCRTXcelerate Inc.QOC 3.2ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: HCA · PACS · USPH · HCSG · ARDT · BTMD · AMN · STLN · XCRT · ADUS · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MD?

7 companies across all industries closest to MD’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

AUBAtlantic Union Bankshares CorporationQOC 7.9CAHCardinal Health, Inc.QOC 7.9RPDRapid7, Inc.QOC 7.9BBARBanco BBVA Argentina S.A.QOC 7.9HPQHP Inc.QOC 7.9EBMTEagle Bancorp Montana, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AUB · CAH · RPD · BBAR · HPQ · EBMT · NVDA

Where Does MD Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

MD is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD)'s intrinsic value at $33.54 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $10.48 to $49.71. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $40.68 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $26.00, 6 of 9 active models suggest MD may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $33.54, 29.0% above the current price of $26.00 — a consensus view that MD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for MD?

Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MD?

CirclFi analyzes MD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MD?

Of the 9 models currently active on MD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $49.71 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $10.48. CirclFi's published fair value for MD is the median of that range, $33.54, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 117% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MD a value trap in 2026?

Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) has a median fair value of $33.54 — 29.0% above the current price of $26.00 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MD valuation
  • Financial statements: Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000893949) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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