Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) Fair Value 2026

NRP · Thermal Coal ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) trades at $112.72, versus a $170.29 median fair value across its 9 active models — 51.1% above the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $220.68.

Key Facts

Ticker
NRP
Price
$112.72
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +430.0% upside with 32% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $170.29, 51.1% above the current price of $112.72. Estimates range from $25.17 to $597.45. NRP scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NRP’s +51.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Natural Resource Partners L.P. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NRP?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($112.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $220.68 +95.8%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $597.45 +430.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $179.20 +59.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $82.93 -26.4%
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What Is NRP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $25.17 to $597.45

CirclFi's 9 active models place Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) between $25.17 and $597.45 per share, a spread of 336% of the median. The median of that range — $170.29 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NRP, against a current price of $112.72.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · EPV
$25.17median $170.29$597.45
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$25.17
Most bullish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$597.45
Model agreement6 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NRP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NRP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Natural Resource Partners L.P. at $112.72. With an estimated intrinsic value of $170.29 and 6 of 9 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +51.1%. The most optimistic model, EPV, places fair value at $597.45 (+430.0%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $25.17 (-77.7%). This +507.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Natural Resource Partners L.P.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NRP?

9 of 13 models are currently active for NRP. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NRP is $170.29 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $220.68 on its own, implying +95.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NRP Rank in Thermal Coal?

Among 5 Thermal Coal stocks, NRP ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

The Thermal Coal sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For Natural Resource Partners L.P., metrics like breakeven oil price provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NRP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NRP a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Natural Resource Partners L.P.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Natural Resource Partners L.P. earns a quality score of 7.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +507.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NRP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NRP's 9 active models, average confidence is 22%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Natural Resource Partners L.P. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Thermal Coal Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Thermal Coal stocks with 13-model coverage

ARLPAlliance Resource Partners, L.P.QOC 8.2NCNACCO Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc.QOC 7.1BTUPeabody Energy CorporationQOC 6.5

Read investment analysis: ARLP · NC · CNR · BTU

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NRP?

7 companies across all industries closest to NRP’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

AUBAtlantic Union Bankshares CorporationQOC 7.9CAHCardinal Health, Inc.QOC 7.9HPQHP Inc.QOC 7.9SEISolaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 7.9IMXIInternational Money Express, Inc.QOC 7.9EBMTEagle Bancorp Montana, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AUB · CAH · HPQ · SEI · IMXI · EBMT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Natural Resource Partners L.P.’s Valuation?

What is Natural Resource Partners L.P.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP)'s intrinsic value at $170.29 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $25.17 to $597.45. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $220.68 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NRP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $112.72, 6 of 9 active models suggest NRP may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $170.29, 51.1% above the current price of $112.72 — a consensus view that NRP is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Natural Resource Partners L.P.'s business model in Thermal Coal.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for NRP?

Natural Resource Partners L.P.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NRP?

CirclFi analyzes NRP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NRP?

Of the 9 models currently active on NRP, Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bullish at $597.45 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $25.17. CirclFi's published fair value for NRP is the median of that range, $170.29, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 336% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NRP a value trap in 2026?

Natural Resource Partners L.P.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) has a median fair value of $170.29 — 51.1% above the current price of $112.72 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NRP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NRP valuation
  • Financial statements: Natural Resource Partners L.P. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001171486) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NRP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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