Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) Fair Value 2026

BTU · Thermal Coal ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) trades at $25.43, versus a $24.62 median fair value across its 9 active models — 3.2% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.16.

Key Facts

Ticker
BTU
Price
$25.43
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +476.3% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $24.62, within 3.2% of the current price of $25.43. Estimates range from $0.85 to $146.56. BTU scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 42/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. BTU’s -3.2% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Peabody Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BTU?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.16 -87.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $24.62 -3.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $146.56 +476.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.85 -96.6%
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What Is BTU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.85 to $146.56

CirclFi's 9 active models place Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) between $0.85 and $146.56 per share, a spread of 592% of the median. The median of that range — $24.62 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BTU, against a current price of $25.43.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$0.85median $24.62$146.56
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.85
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$146.56
Model agreement4 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BTU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BTU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Peabody Energy Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $24.62, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $25.43. With a median implied return of -3.2% across a split 4–4 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +573.0% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +476.3% (fair value: $146.56), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -96.6% ($0.85). The spread between these extremes — +573.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BTU?

9 of 13 models are currently active for BTU. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BTU is $24.62 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.16 on its own, implying -87.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BTU Rank in Thermal Coal?

Among 5 Thermal Coal stocks, BTU ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Thermal Coal space, Peabody Energy Corporation competes in an environment where reserve life index often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BTU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BTU a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Peabody Energy Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Peabody Energy Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 6.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +573.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BTU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BTU's 9 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Peabody Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Thermal Coal Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Thermal Coal stocks with 13-model coverage

ARLPAlliance Resource Partners, L.P.QOC 8.2NRPNatural Resource Partners L.P.QOC 7.9NCNACCO Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc.QOC 7.1

Read investment analysis: ARLP · NRP · NC · CNR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BTU?

7 companies across all industries closest to BTU’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

FBLAFB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.5ARQTArcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.5IEHCIEH CorporationQOC 6.5DYAIDyadic International, Inc.QOC 6.5BSBRBanco Santander (Brasil) S.A.QOC 6.5TCITranscontinental Realty Investors, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FBLA · ARQT · IEHC · DYAI · BSBR · TCI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Peabody Energy Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Peabody Energy Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)'s intrinsic value at $24.62 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.85 to $146.56. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.16 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BTU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.43, 4 of 9 active models suggest BTU may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $24.62, within 3.2% of the current price of $25.43 — a consensus view that BTU is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Peabody Energy Corporation's business model in Thermal Coal.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for BTU?

Peabody Energy Corporation's QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BTU?

CirclFi analyzes BTU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BTU?

Of the 9 models currently active on BTU, First Chicago is the most bullish at $146.56 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.85. CirclFi's published fair value for BTU is the median of that range, $24.62, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 592% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BTU a value trap in 2026?

Peabody Energy Corporation's Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) has a median fair value of $24.62 — within 3.2% of the current price of $25.43 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BTU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BTU valuation
  • Financial statements: Peabody Energy Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001064728) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BTU as of ; valuations recomputed .

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