Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) Fair Value 2026

CNR · Thermal Coal ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) trades at $101.66, versus a $73.70 median fair value across its 8 active models — 27.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $69.08.

Key Facts

Ticker
CNR
Price
$101.66
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +74.3% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $73.70, 27.5% below the current price of $101.66. Estimates range from $33.01 to $177.16. CNR scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 32/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CNR’s -27.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Core Natural Resources, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CNR?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($101.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $69.08 -32.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $77.00 -24.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $177.16 +74.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.56 -64.0%
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What Is CNR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $33.01 to $177.16

CirclFi's 8 active models place Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) between $33.01 and $177.16 per share, a spread of 196% of the median. The median of that range — $73.70 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CNR, against a current price of $101.66.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$33.01median $73.70$177.16
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$33.01
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$177.16
Model agreement2 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CNR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CNR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $73.70, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $101.66. With 6 out of 8 models flagging downside (-27.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $177.16 (+74.3%), versus Dynamic NAV at $33.01 (-67.5%). This +141.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CNR?

8 of 13 models are currently active for CNR. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CNR is $73.70 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $69.08 on its own, implying -32.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CNR Rank in Thermal Coal?

Among 5 Thermal Coal stocks, CNR ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Thermal Coal space, Core Natural Resources, Inc. competes in an environment where debt-to-EBITDAX often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CNR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CNR a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Core Natural Resources, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +141.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CNR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CNR's 8 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Core Natural Resources, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Thermal Coal Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Thermal Coal stocks with 13-model coverage

ARLPAlliance Resource Partners, L.P.QOC 8.2NRPNatural Resource Partners L.P.QOC 7.9NCNACCO Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6BTUPeabody Energy CorporationQOC 6.5

Read investment analysis: ARLP · NRP · NC · BTU

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CNR?

7 companies across all industries closest to CNR’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

IRWDIronwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.1BBUCBrookfield Business CorporationQOC 7.1KIDSOrthoPediatrics Corp.QOC 7.1GGBGerdau S.A.QOC 7.1KKRKKR & Co. Inc.QOC 7.1SDGRSchrödinger, Inc.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IRWD · BBUC · KIDS · GGB · KKR · SDGR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Core Natural Resources, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)'s intrinsic value at $73.70 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $33.01 to $177.16. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $69.08 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CNR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $101.66, 2 of 8 active models suggest CNR may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $73.70, 27.5% below the current price of $101.66 — a consensus view that CNR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s business model in Thermal Coal.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for CNR?

Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CNR?

CirclFi analyzes CNR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CNR?

Of the 8 models currently active on CNR, First Chicago is the most bullish at $177.16 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $33.01. CirclFi's published fair value for CNR is the median of that range, $73.70, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 196% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CNR a value trap in 2026?

Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) has a median fair value of $73.70 — 27.5% below the current price of $101.66 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CNR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CNR valuation
  • Financial statements: Core Natural Resources, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001710366) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CNR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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