Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) Fair Value 2026

ARLP · Thermal Coal ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (7/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) trades at $26.18, versus a $40.62 median fair value across its 11 active models — 55.1% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 7/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $88.30.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARLP
Price
$26.18
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
7/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +369.2% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $40.62, 55.1% above the current price of $26.18. Estimates range from $5.93 to $122.83. ARLP scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 7/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ARLP’s +55.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARLP?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($26.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $88.30 +237.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.76 +32.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $48.06 +83.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $122.83 +369.2%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ARLP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $5.93 to $122.83

CirclFi's 11 active models place Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) between $5.93 and $122.83 per share, a spread of 288% of the median. The median of that range — $40.62 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ARLP, against a current price of $26.18.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$5.93median $40.62$122.83
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$5.93
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$122.83
Model agreement9 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ARLP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ARLP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.. Trading at $26.18 against an estimated intrinsic value of $40.62, 9 of 11 active models flag meaningful upside of +55.1% at the median. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $122.83 (+369.2%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $5.93 (-77.3%). This +446.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ARLP?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ARLP. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ARLP is $40.62 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $88.30 on its own, implying +237.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARLP Rank in Thermal Coal?

Among 5 Thermal Coal stocks, ARLP ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places ARLP in the top tier.

Within the Thermal Coal space, Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. competes in an environment where debt-to-EBITDAX often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ARLP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARLP a score of 7/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. is rated at 8.2/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +446.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARLP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARLP's 11 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Thermal Coal Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Thermal Coal stocks with 13-model coverage

NRPNatural Resource Partners L.P.QOC 7.9NCNACCO Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc.QOC 7.1BTUPeabody Energy CorporationQOC 6.5

Read investment analysis: NRP · NC · CNR · BTU

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARLP?

7 companies across all industries closest to ARLP’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

CNXNPC Connection, Inc.QOC 8.2HSYThe Hershey CompanyQOC 8.2STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.2PSIXPower Solutions International, Inc.QOC 8.2CPCanadian Pacific Kansas City LimitedQOC 8.2GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompanyQOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CNXN · HSY · STLD · PSIX · CP · GPK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.’s Valuation?

What is Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP)'s intrinsic value at $40.62 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.93 to $122.83. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $88.30 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARLP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $26.18, 9 of 11 active models suggest ARLP may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $40.62, 55.1% above the current price of $26.18 — a consensus view that ARLP is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.'s business model in Thermal Coal.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for ARLP?

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARLP?

CirclFi analyzes ARLP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ARLP?

Of the 11 models currently active on ARLP, First Chicago is the most bullish at $122.83 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $5.93. CirclFi's published fair value for ARLP is the median of that range, $40.62, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 288% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ARLP a value trap in 2026?

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.'s Value Trap score is 7/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) has a median fair value of $40.62 — 55.1% above the current price of $26.18 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARLP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARLP valuation
  • Financial statements: Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001086600) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARLP as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ARLP.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for ARLP Unlock All 11 — $39/mo