BGC Group, Inc. (BGC) Fair Value 2026

BGC · Capital Markets ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, BGC Group, Inc. (BGC) trades at $11.85, versus a $6.11 median fair value across its 6 active models — 48.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BGC
Price
$11.85
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +14.9% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is BGC Group, Inc. (BGC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, BGC Group, Inc. (BGC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $6.11, 48.4% below the current price of $11.85. Estimates range from $1.79 to $38.61. BGC scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. BGC’s -48.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Capital Markets sector median is -30.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BGC Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BGC?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.79 -84.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $7.16 -39.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.62 +14.9%
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What Is BGC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $1.79 to $38.61

CirclFi's 6 active models place BGC Group, Inc. (BGC) between $1.79 and $38.61 per share, a spread of 602% of the median. The median of that range — $6.11 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BGC, against a current price of $11.85.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$1.79median $6.11$38.61
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$1.79
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$38.61
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BGC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BGC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is BGC Group, Inc. (BGC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BGC Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $6.11. Trading at $11.85, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -48.4%), as 4 of 6 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $38.61 (+225.8%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $1.79 (-84.9%). This +310.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about BGC Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BGC?

6 of 13 models are currently active for BGC. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BGC is $6.11 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BGC Rank in Capital Markets?

Among 103 Capital Markets stocks, BGC ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places BGC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Capital Markets Stocks →

BGC Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Capital Markets segment means that non-performing loan ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including credit quality trends — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BGC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BGC a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for BGC Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BGC Group, Inc. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +310.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BGC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BGC's 6 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BGC Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Capital Markets Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Capital Markets stocks with 13-model coverage

GOLDGold.com, Inc.QOC 8.2GRANGrande Group LimitedQOC 8.0PJTPJT Partners Inc.QOC 8.2VIRTVirtu Financial, Inc.QOC 7.9MKTXMarketAxess Holdings Inc.QOC 8.3SNEXStoneX Group Inc.QOC 7.8ABITAthena Bitcoin GlobalQOC 6.5BTBTBit Digital, Inc.QOC 5.3MGTIMGT Capital Investments, Inc.QOC 3.5FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: GOLD · GRAN · PJT · VIRT · MKTX · SNEX · ABIT · BTBT · MGTI · FUTU · HOOD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BGC?

7 companies across all industries closest to BGC’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

STZConstellation Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2WDAYWorkday, Inc.QOC 8.2CVNACarvana Co.QOC 8.2FERGFerguson Enterprises Inc.QOC 8.2DISThe Walt Disney CompanyQOC 8.2ARLPAlliance Resource Partners, L.P.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: STZ · WDAY · CVNA · FERG · DIS · ARLP · NVDA

Where Does BGC Sit in CirclFi's Capital Markets Rankings?

BGC is ranked against every other Capital Markets stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Capital Markets stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About BGC Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is BGC Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts BGC Group, Inc. (BGC)'s intrinsic value at $6.11 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $1.79 to $38.61. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BGC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.85, 2 of 6 active models suggest BGC may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $6.11, 48.4% below the current price of $11.85 — a consensus view that BGC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BGC Group, Inc.'s business model in Capital Markets.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for BGC?

BGC Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BGC?

CirclFi analyzes BGC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BGC?

Of the 6 models currently active on BGC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $38.61 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $1.79. CirclFi's published fair value for BGC is the median of that range, $6.11, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 602% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BGC a value trap in 2026?

BGC Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, BGC Group, Inc. (BGC) has a median fair value of $6.11 — 48.4% below the current price of $11.85 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BGC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BGC valuation
  • Financial statements: BGC Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001094831) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BGC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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