Workday, Inc. (WDAY) Fair Value 2026

WDAY · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Workday, Inc. (WDAY) trades at $204.72, versus a $87.69 median fair value across its 10 active models — 57.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $280.35.

Key Facts

Ticker
WDAY
Price
$204.72
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +36.9% upside with 73% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Workday, Inc. (WDAY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Workday, Inc. (WDAY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $87.69, 57.2% below the current price of $204.72. Estimates range from $10.04 to $377.07. WDAY scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. WDAY’s -57.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Workday, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give WDAY?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($204.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $280.35 +36.9%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $24.41 -88.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $105.14 -48.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $76.29 -62.7%
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What Is WDAY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $10.04 to $377.07

CirclFi's 10 active models place Workday, Inc. (WDAY) between $10.04 and $377.07 per share, a spread of 419% of the median. The median of that range — $87.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for WDAY, against a current price of $204.72.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$10.04median $87.69$377.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$10.04
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$377.07
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for WDAY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on WDAY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Workday, Inc. (WDAY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Workday, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $87.69, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $204.72. With 8 out of 10 models flagging downside (-57.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $377.07 (+84.2%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $10.04 (-95.1%). This +179.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Workday, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About WDAY?

10 of 13 models are currently active for WDAY. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for WDAY is $87.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $280.35 on its own, implying +36.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WDAY Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, WDAY ranks #64 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places WDAY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Within the Software - Application space, Workday, Inc. competes in an environment where net revenue retention (NRR) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is WDAY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WDAY a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Workday, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Workday, Inc. is rated at 8.2/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +179.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WDAY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WDAY's 10 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Workday, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

SSNCSS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3LYFTLyft, Inc.QOC 8.1ADEAAdeia Inc.QOC 8.3SRADSportradar Group AGQOC 8.1OOMAOoma, Inc.QOC 8.3PERFPerfect Corp.QOC 8.1LTCHLatch, Inc.QOC 6.7BBLRBubblr Inc.QOC 5.0WCTWellchange Holdings Company LimitedQOC 2.4ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: SSNC · LYFT · ADEA · SRAD · OOMA · PERF · LTCH · BBLR · WCT · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to WDAY?

7 companies across all industries closest to WDAY’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

PSAPublic StorageQOC 8.2ARDTArdent Health, Inc.QOC 8.2WSBCWesBanco, Inc.QOC 8.2KGCKinross Gold CorporationQOC 8.2ADAMAdamas Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2PRKPark National CorporationQOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PSA · ARDT · WSBC · KGC · ADAM · PRK · NVDA

Where Does WDAY Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

WDAY is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Workday, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Workday, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Workday, Inc. (WDAY)'s intrinsic value at $87.69 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $10.04 to $377.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $280.35 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WDAY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $204.72, 2 of 10 active models suggest WDAY may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $87.69, 57.2% below the current price of $204.72 — a consensus view that WDAY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Workday, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for WDAY?

Workday, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WDAY?

CirclFi analyzes WDAY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on WDAY?

Of the 10 models currently active on WDAY, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $377.07 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $10.04. CirclFi's published fair value for WDAY is the median of that range, $87.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 419% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is WDAY a value trap in 2026?

Workday, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Workday, Inc. (WDAY) has a median fair value of $87.69 — 57.2% below the current price of $204.72 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/WDAY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this WDAY valuation
  • Financial statements: Workday, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001327811) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for WDAY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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